DRAM產業國際競爭動態與策略聯盟之研究

Abstract

歷經過去二十多年的競合演進，全球DRAM產業已然形成寡佔的結構，由分佈在韓國、美國、歐洲、日本和台灣為主的大中華區的五個主要DRAM陣營，其中亞洲的廠商透過跨國策略聯盟，與世界DRAM五大集團（三星、美光、Hynix、英飛凌 與Elpida）結合，一方取得產品設計與生產技術，另一方則可藉此分攤昂貴的研發與建廠成本，以大幅減少營運風險。 台灣與德、日、韓等國之間的跨國合作憑藉著彼此在DRAM產業的各項競爭優勢，而形成的國際策略聯盟關係，最主要的目的是趁著這一波數位化趨勢之潮流，強化韓、德、日與台灣之間的國際分工關係，降低成本，發展區域整合的優勢，健全彼此的產業結構，藉以改變DRAM產業的生態及宿命。如果日本或德國與台灣DRAM廠商的合作能實質上擴大雙方國際聯盟的規模，不拘泥於國內企業間聯盟的關係，亦可在分享兩國相關支援產業下，達成兩國資源互補與市場的共享，進而降低兩國DRAM產業經營的風險，達到合作雙贏局面的可能性。 藉由這些國際策略策略關係，以及積極對12吋晶圓廠的投資，台灣DRAM快速地提高其市場佔有率，整體的產能市佔率可望在2006年突破20%，2006年預期將成為台灣DRAM廠在全球市場展露頭角的一年。但是，目前我國DRAM廠商並無自主的DRAM設計的先進技術和製程研發能力，技術來源者在DRAM產業是否具有絕對的競爭力，與國內廠商是否能單純的透過技術移轉或策略聯盟獲利及未來能否存活息息相關。國內DRAM廠商以優勢管理能力在製造成本控管上有優越的競爭力，為保持領先地位，未來在量產規模和微縮製程上仍需不斷投入資金，大量資金的投入其相對風險也增加，是否能經得起另一個衰退也是一隱憂。 本論文除了先簡單地介紹記憶體產品、DRAM的種類和應用演變歷程外，也透過產業數據資料的蒐集、整理、分析，利用競爭優勢及策略聯盟理論，以及SWOT理論，探討DRAM產業崛起至今，美國、日本、韓國、德國與台灣在DRAM產業界各自的競爭優勢與國際策略聯盟關係，由策略聯盟的關係來看研發費用的分攤及達到量產規劃的可行性以及未來的投資能力、市場供需狀況等因素來分析全球及台灣DRAM未來的可能演變。

Global DRAM industry has been emerged as an oligopoly structure which is dominated by 5 major players–Samsung, Micron, Hynix, Infineon and Elpida. To reduce their investment risks on technology development and fab., these dominant players engaged some sort of strategic alliance relationships with firms in Taiwan and China. Specifically, Taiwanese firms have made alliances with those IDMs (Integrated Device Manufacturers) in Germany, Korea and Japan to source DRAM design and process technologies. Among all DRAM players, Taiwanese firms are most aggressive firms continuously to build 12-inch fabs to produce commodity DRAM with a low cost strategy, which in turn leads to market share increases during the past year. While Taiwan’s DRAM players are in the front line of market competition, Taiwanese companies did not own DRAM technology and most of the technology was licensed from IDM companies in U.S, Korea, Europe, and Japan through capacity exchanges. What supports Taiwanese companies to compete relies upon superior management skill and the capability to lower the manufacturing cost, which may not be a sustainable competitive advantage in the long run. This thesis will first briefly introduce the DRAM product and its applications. Based on secondary information, we will further investigate the DRAM cycle, to explore the strategic alliances of each DRAM company. Finally, based on the total supply and demand, we will suggest the effect of strategic alliance for fab cluster among these firms to share the R&D expenses and to duplicate the manufacturing from reference sites and to analyze whether firms needs to build more new fab to fulfill the demand requirement. Implications of these analyses are also discussed.