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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 孫志陸 | |
dc.contributor.author | Yi-Jay Chang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 張以杰 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-13T02:16:02Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-01-01 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2011-08-03 | |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2011-08-01 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/30796 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 龍蝦為台灣沿海小型漁業之高經濟漁獲物種,然而有關其漁業及資源狀況的了解卻相當有限,有鑑於此,本研究以台灣東部海域密毛龍蝦為例,建構一套完整的量化模擬及資源評估理論架構,期對台灣的龍蝦資源有進一步的了解與掌握。成長模式是量化族群動態時最重的一環,本研究回顧目前所有量化甲殼類成長的模式,比較不同成長模式在不同物種的應用,並探討甲殼類成長與各種生物及非生物因子間的關係。
龍蝦漁業評估往往受資料及生活史過程之變異等未確定性所影響,本研究探討龍蝦的自然死亡率,並利用單位加入模式配合蒙地卡羅模擬法探討各種參數的未確定性對該龍蝦漁業評估結果的影響,結果發現單位加入模式中生物及漁業參數之未確性會影響生物參考點(F0.1及F40%)的估計。當漁業死亡率及生物參考點皆存在很高的未確定性下,其資源評估結果則存在很大的未確定。 為了詳細模擬龍蝦複雜的生活史,本研究建構個體模式來量化龍蝦的族群動態,進行台灣東部沿海密毛龍蝦資源評估,模式套適資料包括歷年龍蝦漁獲量及體長頻度資料。模式評估結果顯示,台灣東部沿海密毛龍蝦的產卵母群量為未開發程度的23%。根據貝氏後驗分布進行未來資源狀況之風險分析,結果顯示目前漁業利用率下,未來產卵親魚量低於未開發產卵母群量之40%的風險很低;然而以未開發產卵母群量之20%來看,則有較高的風險。此外,本研究進一步探討模式中各種生物及漁業參數對龍蝦族群動態及漁業的影響,結果建議體長限制比其他漁業管理策略對於保護龍蝦資源量更為有效。 環境變遷為影響龍蝦族群動態的重要因子,本研究利用所建構的個體模式探討氣候變遷對於生物參考點及漁業管理意涵的影響。結果證明了海水溫度變暖會提高龍蝦的生產力,並減少未來資源過度開的風險。然而,若海水溫度變暖伴隨較高的自然死亡率,則未來資源有較高的過度開風險。在不利的環境條件下,提高最小合法捕抓體長為有效漁業管理策略。在目前漁業資料缺乏的情況下,本研究建議利用所發展的個體模式來進行台灣海域龍蝦之資源評估,未來在模式中更明確地考慮環境因子和生物過程的關係,可改善資源評估結果的準確性。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Spiny lobsters are highly prized species for the small-scale fisheries in the coastal waters of Taiwan, however the information of the fisheries and the status of stocks are limited and unclear in the past. According to these concerns, the objective of this study is to develop a simulation testing and stock assessment framework for spiny lobster fisheries in Taiwan using the pronghorn spiny lobster (Panulirus peniciliatus) in the waters of eastern coast off Taiwan (Taitung) as an example. Because growth is one of the most important life history processes to study the population dynamics, I widely review the current approaches for modelling the growth of the crustaceans. A comparative study by adapting various methods were applied to different taxa of crustaceans.
Lobsters’ fishery assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and natural variability in life history, I evaluated the natural mortality of P.peniciliatus and used a Monte Carlo approach to incorporate life history parameters’ uncertainty into the estimation of the biological reference points (BRPs). The commonly used BRPs derived from the per recruit model (F0.1 and F40%) was suggested to be influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate and estimates of BRPs increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation. To mimic the complex life history and fishing processes for P.peniciliatus, I further developed an individual-based model (IBM). The developed IBM was used to perform stock assessment, as the model was fitted to the catch and length-frequency of data collected from whole seller. The results indicated that the current spawning stock biomass remains at 23 % of its unfished level (SSB0). Decision analysis based on samples from a Bayesian posterior distribution indicated that there is a negligible risk of the stock dropping below 40% of SSB0 if fishing intensity remains at the current level. However, there is a high risk of overexploitation based on the reference level of 20% of SSB0. Using the developed IBM, I also examined the possible role of various key variable/parameters in characterizing the lobster population dynamics and lobster fishery. The result suggested that the size regulation is more effective compared to other technical measures. To include the environmental change into the population dynamics model, I applied the proposed IBM to evaluate potential impacts of increased ocean temperature on the estimation of mortality-based BRPs for fisheries management. A warming temperature would increase the stock productivity and consequently reduce the risk of overexploitation. However, there is likely a high risk of overexploitation in the long term if higher temperatures induce extra-high natural mortality. The evaluation of effectiveness of size regulations suggests that increasing minimum legal size is proposed as a good candidate measure to reduce the risk of overexploitation for pessimistically unfavorable environmental conditions. Finally, I recommended that using IBM to perform stock assessment in the current data-limited stage. An explicit incorporation of the relationships between environmental variables and biological processes can greatly improve the accuracy of stock assessment. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-13T02:16:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-100-D94241004-1.pdf: 2807177 bytes, checksum: cc17fdbfbc1a1313419be94644c11ac9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | Table of contents
Chapter 1 – Introduction 1 1.1. Motivation of this study 1 1.2. Overview the critical lobster literatures 1 1.3. Overview biology and ecology of spiny lobsters 3 1.4. Overview the life history of pronghorn spiny lobster 5 1.5. The pronghorn spiny lobster fisheries in Taiwan 6 1.6. Objectives of this dissertation 7 Chapter 2 – Modelling the growth of crustaceans 9 2.1. Introduction 9 2.2. Data collection for modelling growth of crustacean 11 2.3. Review methods for describing growth of crustaceans 12 2.3.1. Simple growth rates 13 2.3.2. Continuous growth models 13 2.3.3. Seasonal continuous growth models 15 2.3.4. Reparameterization of the continuous model 16 2.3.5. Length-frequency analysis 17 2.3.6. Discontinuous moult-process models 18 2.3.7. Modelling the growth with variability 21 2.4. Comparative studies of different methods 24 2.4.1. Comparing different models for modelling the MI and IP 24 2.4.2. Comparing the growth curves between different methods 26 2.5. Results 28 2.5.1. The averaged MI model 28 2.5.2. The average intermoult peroiod model 28 2.5.3. Continuous growth model 29 2.5.4. Moult-process model 29 2.5.5. Temperature-dependent moult-process model 30 2.6. Discussion 30 2.6.1. Comparing different methods 30 2.6.2. Uncertainty in modelling the growth of crustacean 32 2.6.3. Growth pattern of crustacean 33 2.6.4. Incorporating environmental factors into growth models 37 2.6.5. Age-determination 39 2.6.6. Conclusion 40 2.6.7. Future research 41 Chapter 3 – Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery 42 3.1. Introduction 42 3.2. Materials and methods 43 3.2.1. Yield-per-recruit model 43 3.2.2. Egg-per-recruit model 46 3.2.3. Estimation of natural mortality 47 3.2.4. Inclusion of uncertainty in decision-making process 48 3.3. Results 48 3.3.1. Estimation of natural mortality 48 3.3.2. Yield-per-recruit model and biological reference points 49 3.3.3. Egg-per-recruit model and biological reference points 51 3.4. Discussion 52 3.4.1. Estimation of natural mortality 52 3.4.2. Biological reference points 53 Chapter 4 – Developing an individual-based model for stock assessment and evaluating the population dynamics for the Taitung spiny lobster, Panulirus penicillatus, fishery 57 4.1. Introduction 57 4.2. Methods and materials 59 4.2.1. The development of the individual-based model 59 4.2.2. Stock assessment 63 4.2.3. Evaluation of key factors on lobster population dynamics 67 4.3. Results 67 4.3.1. Validation of growth parameters 67 4.3.2. Stock assessment 68 4.3.3. Evaluation of key parameters on the lobster population dynamics 69 4.4. Discussion 72 4.4.1. General discussion 72 4.4.2. Applications of IBM in fisheries assessment 74 4.4.3. Stock assessment 74 4.4.4. Evaluation of lobster’s population dynamics 77 Chapter 5 – Incorporating climate changes into population dynamic modelling: an individual-based modelling approach for lobster 80 5.1. Introduction 80 5.2. Methods and materials 82 5.2.1. Temperature dependent mortality 82 5.2.2. Evaluating the performance of the IBM 83 5.2.3. Estimation of BRPs 83 5.2.4. Increased ocean temperature and management implications 83 5.3. Results 85 5.3.1 Evaluating of the IBM performance 85 5.3.2 YPR analysis 85 5.3.3. EPR analysis 86 5.3.4. Evaluation of size regulations 87 5.4. Discussion 87 Chapter 6 – Summary and recommendation 92 6.1. Summary 92 6.2. Fishery monitoring and management recommendations 95 6.2.1. The need for accurate long-term catch and fishing effort statistics 95 6.2.2. Introduction of limited entry 95 6.3. Improving research program for spiny lobster 96 6.3.1 Tagging program 96 6.3.2 Puerulus monitoring program 96 6.4. Ecosystem-based Management 98 Reference 99 References of Table 3.4 129 Tables 134 Figures 171 Appendix Tables 209 Appendix Figures 212 作者簡歷(Curriculum Vitae) 225 | |
dc.language.iso | en | |
dc.title | 台灣東部海域密毛龍蝦資源評估研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Stock assessment of the spiny lobster Panulirus penicillatus in the coastal waters off eastern Taiwan | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 99-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 博士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 李健全,李國添,蘇偉成,邵廣昭,劉光明,戴昌鳳,謝志豪 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 密毛龍蝦,成長模式,未確定性,生物參考點,個體模式,資源評估,氣候變遷, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | spiny lobster,growth modelling,uncertainty,biological reference points,individual-based model,stock assessment,climate change, | en |
dc.relation.page | 226 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2011-08-01 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 海洋研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 海洋研究所 |
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