未預期員工分紅對股價之影響

Abstract

本文首先利用過去年度的員工分紅資料來建立分紅預期模型，並用事件研究法來討論股價對未預期分紅之反應；接著利用OLS模型及固定效果模型來探討異常報酬與未預期分紅之關聯。結果顯示發放超過預期員工分紅之公司會有較差之異常報酬；同時，員工股票分紅對於負異常報酬的影響甚於員工現金分紅；最後也發現員工分紅的稀釋效果強於激勵效果，尤其在近年的數據中更為明顯。

We first form an employee bonus expectation model by the previous bonus data and examine market reactions to unexpected employee bonuses by event study. We then utilize OLS Model and Fixed Effect Model to explore the relationship between unexpected employee bonuses and abnormal returns. The results show that firms which grant more employee bonuses than expected have lower abnormal returns. Also, employee stock bonuses contribute more to negative returns than employee cash bonuses. Furthermore, the negative effects of employee bonuses have seemed to dominate over the incentive effect, particularly in latest years.