兩岸空運直航政策之決策

Abstract

自從1987年政府開放探親以來，兩岸民間交流快速成長；近年來探親、觀光、體育、科技、文化及經貿的往來，更是頻繁。兩岸同時加入WTO以後，兩岸三通在間接通航及金馬地區小三通實施後，可說已通了二通半。目前只剩下半通不通而已，也就是海、空運尚未直航而已。 由於空運直航是兩岸三通直航決策最複雜及最困難的一部分，主要涉及直航必須兩岸協商，在國內也會受到國會、媒體、利益團體與民眾的挑戰。同時，空運直航牽涉到政治、國家安全、經濟及社會等複雜因素，因此，政府各部門對兩岸直航政策的制定與實施需要有所依據。 本研究考量「決策本質」的意涵，希望運用理性模式、組織行為模式及官僚政治模式，幫助分析者解釋複雜的現象，提供政府決策單位清楚地分解問題的本源，找出各種解決問題的方案，以做為最後政策之參考。 研究分析結果可以發現，國際環境雖可能影響我國於兩岸三通及直航的總體輪廓，但國內政治與政黨特性的決策因素在解釋兩岸直航政策時會更較顯著。不同部會的決定因素會隨著決策的不同階段而調整，政府各部會的內部的討價還價可以反映總統可能有那些選擇，而總統的個人傾向可以說明政策為什麼變與不變。不同利益團體的方案與執行模式則可以說明兩岸空運直航政策的不同實施方式。 綜合分析政治、國家安全、經濟及社會等各面向之影響，本研究認為以「定點、定線、定時直航」配合溝通機制，才是現階段最好的兩岸空運直航政策。惟尚待先進老師之指正以及實際執行驗證的考驗。

The civilian exchanges across the Taiwan Strait mushroomed since our government allowed civilians to visit their relatives in mainland China, starting from 1987. The exchanges such as relative-visiting, tourism, sports, technology and trade have been very closely and frequently since then. Moreover, indirect voyage and mini three links with China joined the Word Trade Organization (WTO) simultaneously. Currently there are marine and air transportation that have not been carried out. The direct air transportation, the most complicated and difficult part of three links, will not be able to be conducted if mainland China and Taiwan can not sit down to come out with a feasible solution. This sensitive issue becomes even more complicated because it involves legislative organ, media, interest group, general public with specific political inclination. Therefore, before working out the policy and the implementation of direct voyage across the Strait, we must take the factors such as politics, national safety, economics, and society into considerations. The study, aimed at exploring the nature of decision-making, will try to explain the complicity in this matter by rational model, organizational model, and bureaucratic politics model, identify the problems and difficulties, and figure out possible solution for decision-maker. According to analytical result, the political struggle between two major parties within Taiwan is crucial in the development in this regard through international environment is the outer factor that affects the three links and direct voyage across the Taiwan Strait. It is found that decisive factors may vary at different phases. Moreover, from internal reviews and views within government units, we can understand which choice might be made by President. Of course, President’s will and inclination is the key to the change of policy and ruling party always takes the policy and actions they want in accordance with its nature of part and its recognition for some specific matters. From the analyses in fields of politics, national safety, economy and society, the author believe that the adoption of fixed points, fixed voyage lines, and fixed time along with good two-way dialogue is the best policy to solve the issue of direct voyage across the Taiwan Strait. However, it remains to be seen in later period.