21世紀中共海權的發展與影響(~2020)

Abstract

中 文 摘 要 本研究回顧中共海權的發展形成，以及21世紀（~2020）現行海權發展目標、作法、組織體制，包括法令依據、機構設置、法規建設、組織程序等，並對其在中共綜合國力中的角色與優缺點做出檢討，以形塑中共海權未來發展及其對美、日及兩岸關係影響。總體觀之，中共針對海權的現代化作為，印證馬漢所說:「海權是強國的表徵」。 21世紀前20年正是中共「海洋經濟建設和海洋事業發展的最佳時期，也是建設海洋強國的戰略機遇期」，中共目標是「2010年至2030年經濟總量接近美國，成為太平洋地區的海洋強國；2030年至2050年成為世界海洋強國，最終為21世紀中葉在總體上成為中等發達國家創造條件和做出重要貢獻。」 本文試著從現實主義出發，分析中共從1949年建政之後至21世紀 （~2020）追求海權發展的過程及對亞太周邊國家顯示意涵。

Abstract This essay is mainly to review China’s developing sea power on its relevant of conditions , goal, strategy system of organizing in the 21st century, including decree basis, organization structuring, regulation construction, organization procedure,etc.. This essay also studies and judges how China’s sea power development influences the stability in the Asian Pacific area and vising China’s role. Acording to A.T.Mahan “sea power is a symbol of great power” It is exactly the China in the first 20 years of 21st century marine economic construction and the best period for development of marine cause, build marine strategic opportunity issue of powerful country too, the China’s goal , 2010 total supply and demand close U.S.A. to 2030 year, become the marine powerful country in the Pacific area; Became the marine powerful country of the world from 2030 to 2050, created conditions for becoming medium-sized developed country on the whole in middle period of 21st century and made important contribution finally. This essay tries to proceed from realism, analysize China have pursue the development of sea power from 1949 to 21st centry and reveal meaning to the Asian-Pacific surrounding countries.