從實質選擇權觀點探討不確定環境下資訊科技投資之研究 —以企業資源規劃系統為例

Abstract

在全球化競爭環境下，資訊科技已成為企業競爭勝負最有力的武器。然而隨著科技日新月異，資訊科技專案更形複雜且導入時程更為費時。在此環境下，種種的不確定性因素使得投資風險大幅攀升，因此企業需要各種管理上的彈性來降低這些風險。傳統上資訊科技投資評估方式主要為傳統淨現值法，但其無法衡量資訊科技投資的管理彈性，使得組織無法評估資訊科技投資專案的真實價值。 實質選擇權理論起源於財務領域，是一種強調評估不確定性環境下具有管理彈性投資之評估方式。本研究探討在不確定環境下資訊科技投資之相關理論，進而從實質選擇權理論探討資訊科技投資的不確定因素。根據各種不確定性，嘗試從實質選擇權理論提出相對應的評量模式。以數量方法評量資訊科技投資專案的複合選擇權價值，並逐一探討各選擇權之價值及影響。 研究結果顯示，將選擇權價值列入資訊科技投資專案，與傳統淨現值法之評估結果有很大差異，而此差異來自於向來資訊科技投資所忽略之管理彈性價值。管理者因為能夠根據環境演變做出最佳決策，因此較傳統淨現值法的靜態評估方式更為細緻精確。本研究不僅提出以實質選擇權觀點來管理資訊科技投資風險的觀念，並提出如何根據不同的資訊科技特性做不同定模的方式，更以數值來展現這樣的結果，可補足資訊管理領域在資訊科技投資風險管理上的理論缺口，這些皆可做為學術界與實務界的參考。

Implementation of information technology solutions, which involve both technical and social uncertainties, is a high risk endeavor. Traditional information technology practices address the implementation of information technology as a static process; thus, such practices focus on structure, not on information technology as something that will meet the needs of a changing organization. As a result, many relevant uncertainties that cannot be predefined are not easily accommodated. Real Options (RO) theory, which addresses uncertainties over time, resolves uncertainties in changing environments that cannot be predefined. In this paper, we propose a Real Options perspective on the information technology implementation process with the focus on uncertainty. This perspective takes into consideration the often-changing nature of companies that undertake information technology implementations. In addition, we demonstrate how implementing information technology projects with Real Options theory facilitates active management. By actively managing information technology implementation, managers can improve their flexibility, take appropriate action to respond to the changing information technology environment, and achieve a more successful information technology implementation that better meets the needs of the organization.