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標題: | 應用UrbanSim分析台北市土地使用變遷之研究 A Study on the Application of UrbanSim in the Analysis of Land Use Change in Taipei City |
作者: | Wan-Kai Lee 李萬凱 |
指導教授: | 林建元(Chien-Yuan Lin) |
關鍵字: | 都市模擬模型,可調整區域單元問題,資料挖掘,羅吉特函數,普查地理, Urban simulation model,Modifiable Areal Unit Problem Modules (MAUP),data mining,Logit Model,census geography,land use control, |
出版年 : | 2008 |
學位: | 博士 |
摘要: | 土地使用變遷為國土計畫與管理的重要研究課題。為分析土地使用變遷的各種外在影響因素,必須以數理統計模型為之,都市模擬系統即為重要手段之一。至於如何建立適當的動態模擬系統,以評估各種發展情境,則為實務運作上的極大挑戰。主要困難有兩大類,一是缺乏適當的整合模型,都市土地使用之變遷過程,受到社會、經濟與環境等不同的條件制約及建設投資所產生的效用影響,亟需突破傳統方法以充分解決整合性課題。二是空間資料的準備不易,因普查資料通常作為都市土地使用變遷分析的基本數值資料,然而當分析普查資料的大尺度空間單元超過分析單元範圍時,將無法充份反映更重要的細部變化。
本研究從國內外相關文獻與研究中加以歸納分析與評估,建立研究架構並以美國華盛頓大學發展的UrbanSim模型配合本土資料經調整後作為研究模型基礎。在研究流程中,首先為建立研究資料庫以支援模型運作,本研究運用可調整區域單元的概念,建立普查資料分派模型,成功解決普查地理的空間單元問題,同時以台北市為研究範圍,完成實證研究,包括分析捷運車站周邊影響變化、商業區位的資料挖掘運用及UrbanSim模型模擬土地變遷因子,在不同情境下變更分區管制對就業人口數量與分佈影響。 研究結果顯示,本研究所發展的普查地理資料分派模型,可有效處理彈性尺度的空間單元基礎資料,使得以點為單位的空間統計與資料挖掘成為可能,並建立研究資料庫運用UrbanSim模型分析土地使用動態變遷因子交互影響性。本研究成果觀察到土地使用管制,對研究範圍內就業人口數及空間分佈產生變化與不同管制條件有關,因此提出分區管制應具備彈性調整能力所需的量化決策資訊。將可做為未來研擬不同土地使用管制方案之決策參考。 Research on land use change is one of the important topics in the area of land use planning and management. In order to analyze the land use change process and to predict the future change direction, mathematic models are often needed, especially the development and application of large scale urban models. In fact, it is a challenging task in practice to develop an appropriate model for the evaluation of various factors affecting land use changes. There are two groups of difficulties. One is the data preparation issue in the pre-processing. Due to the inconsistence of spatial units between census data and study area, fundamental data are difficult to be applied. The other issue is about the system responsiveness. The land use changing process is affected by social, economic and environmental conditions and the various infrastructure investments. An integrated model is thus needed to facilitate the study of land use changes. Through extensive literature review and evaluation in this study, the UrbanSim urban simulation model developed in the University of Washington is adopted as the basic framework for improvement and application. First of all, in order to set up data base to support the operation of simulation model, Modifiable Areal Unit Problem Modules (MAUP) is applied to establish a data distribution model to resolve the census geographic unit problem. In addition to the application of data mining in the study of land use changes in areas surrounding Taipei MRT station, this study take Taipei City as the study area, by means of Logit-based UrbanSim model, spatial changes of employment distribution under different land use control schemes are analyzed. In this study, it is concluded that the census geographic data allocation model developed in this research can flexibly handle the spatial unit problems in different scales. Point-based spatial statistics and data mining are thus able to be processed in order to support the operation of UrbanSim. In addition, it is found in this study that the total employment and its spatial distribution are influenced by different land use control scheme. The modified model and result of the empirical study can be used as the reference for the preparation of future land development strategies in Taipei. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/27281 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 土木工程學系 |
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