取消促進產業升級條例對總體經濟之可能衝擊

Abstract

本文主要的目的是探討取消促進產業升級條例後對我國經濟體系的衝擊效果。文中主要沿用吳中書、范芝萍 (2006) 、何金巡總供需估測年模型9608號、林建甫 (2005) 台灣總體經濟金融模型之建立等，以總需求為主的架構，建立一個總體計量年模型，將取消促產條例後對經濟可能造成影響之管道融入模型中，再利用可能之稅收變化來模擬其對總體經濟之可能衝擊，因此設計了六種方案的情境分析，第一個基本情境假設為，在2010年全面取消促產條例，接下來在第一個基本假設方案之下，搭配各項租稅改革政策與財政支出政策，如有搭配取消未分配保留盈餘加徵10%、調降營所稅和綜所稅稅率、提高營業稅稅率1%、增加政府消費支出與增加政府投資支出等五個方案。最後再綜合比較搭配各項政策的效果為何? 模擬結果顯示，從整體來看取消促產條例，短期內勢必會造成國內經濟體系受到抑制，但長期來看可以改善國家財政狀況，進而提昇國內經濟發展。然而在搭配減稅政策下，雖然短期內可以減緩促產條例所帶來的負面影響，但是長期而言比較不能改善政府財政狀況和提昇未來經濟發展。相反地在搭配增稅政策下，短期內會加重促產落日所帶來的不利影響，但長期越能改善政府財政狀況和提昇未來經濟發展。最後本文也發現搭配增加政府投資支出比搭配增加政府消費支出對總體經濟有較好的助益，並且也能較快速抵消促產條例落日所帶來的負面衝擊。

The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the impacts of abolishing the statute for upgrading industries on Taiwan’s economy. I follow the framework(steps) adopted by Wu and Fan (2006), He No.9608, Lin (2005), to construct a macro-econometric model describing the channel of abolishing the statute for upgrading industries and use the change of tax revenue to design six simulations. The first one is to simulate abolishing the statute for upgrading industries in 2010. The others are based on the first simulation, and add some tax reforms or government expenditures policies. Finally, I have a comprehensive comparison among the six different situations. According to the result of the first simulation, in the short run abolishing the statute for upgrading industries will have negative impacts on economy, but in the long run it will improve government finance and economic growth. With the tax reduction policies, in the short run it can lessen the negative impacts brought by the statute for upgrading industries, in the long run it can also improve government finance and the development of the future economy but it will not work better than the first simulation. Conversely, with the increasing tax policy, in the short run it can aggravate the negative effects brought by the statute for upgrading industries, but in the long run it can improve the government finance and the development of the future economy the most. Last, I found that increasing government investment expenditure helps economy better than increasing government consumption expenditure, and the former takes less time to offset the negative impacts brought by the statute for upgrading industries.