晶圓代工策略動態模型

Abstract

有鑒於晶圓代工整體環境日趨複雜,競爭日益激烈,價格的壓力持續升高, 加上高階製程資本支出持續飆高,晶圓從業廠商必須對大環境各項變數以及各個競爭者間互動有整體看法,方能產生正確策略方向以玆應對。 本論文主要關注於發展一個動態模型以便協助展開晶圓代工業相關策略研究,主要研究變數為產業需求, 競爭者產能, 定價策略,需求量於競爭者間的分配, 以及不同變數互動下導致的市場狀況。 模型架構完成, 加入一定假設下的變數後, 我們接著探討模型行為以及測試其可用性。 一旦證明了模型的可行性, 就可據以探討各種產業情況下模型的不同應用方式, 以支援相關策略訂定 。 本文內容雖然為動態市場分析打下些許基礎, 但當然仍可加以深入研究以臻佳境, 尤其是風險評估以及最佳解分析, 將對本模型的進化有相當幫助。 另需注意的一點是, 模型推估的結果不應視為絕對, 而應重視不同方案下呈現的差異數所透露的訊息。

In view of the increasingly complicated business environment for Pure-Play foundries, with heightened competitiveness, tremendous pricing pressure, and ever- increasing capital expenditures, it is vital for the foundry companies to be able to have a consolidated view of all business factors and how they interplay with each other, to eventually affect the company involved as well as the industry as a whole.

This thesis focuses on the development of such a dynamic model, identifying the key factors – industry demand, competitor capacity, pricing tactics, and the distribution of demand herewith. With the framework setup, parameters identified, assumptions specified, we then focus on discussing how the overall model would work, and its validation. Once validated, we proceed to explore the various applications of the model under different business conditions, how scenarios should be setting under those specific conditions, to demonstrate the model’s practical use in supporting strategic decision-making. What’s discussed in this thesis, while laying a sound basis for dynamic industry study, can still be improved further with some more optimization and risk analysis mechanism. It is also to bear in mind that we should view the outcome of the model as a comparison amongst scenarios for executive consideration, rather than absolute financial projections; nor should it be used for short-term capacity planning.