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標題: | 台灣總體計量模型-消費券與財政政策比較分析 A Comparison Analysis of the Impacts between Consumption Voucher and Fiscal Policy on Taiwan Economy |
作者: | Yu-Ting Tsai 蔡育廷 |
指導教授: | 林建甫 |
關鍵字: | 總體計量模型,政策模擬,政策評估,消費券政策,財政政策,比較分析,情境模擬, overall macroeconometric model,government policies,consumption coupon,fiscal spending policy,comparison Analysis, |
出版年 : | 2009 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 本文研究主要目的為建立台灣總體計量模型,並透過此模型分析政府實施不同政策對於總體經濟所產生的影響,並比較政策效果大小。依據台灣目前經濟情勢及政府政策,本文比較分析兩種不同政策,消費券政策及財政政策,評估與分析在不同政策下的效果大小:
(1)消費券:分為一次消費券與二次消費券。在一次消費券下,對當期的經濟有正向的衝擊,經濟成長、失業率下降、股價與利率上升及通貨膨脹。而二次消費券可以延續並加強一次消費券的效果。 (2)財政政策:在政府財政政策下,政府支出暫時性增加,對經濟的刺激方向與消費券政策大致一樣,經濟成長、失業率下降、股價與利率上升及通貨膨脹。 比較兩政策的效果大小後,本文發現政府暫時性支出增加的當期效果大於消費券政策。政策結束後,由於外生刺激消失及通貨膨脹,使得經濟體產生向下修正的力量,造成下一期經濟衰退,失業率上升等現象。比較下一期向下修正的力量後,發現消費券的向下效果較政府財政支出小。若讓政策持續至下一期,本文發現二次消費券可以延續並加強一次消費券的效果,使得下一期向下修正的效果消失,並遞延至第三期。本文的結論為,若國際經濟局勢穩定則採財政政策,但若國際經濟局勢很不穩定則採消費券政策較佳。 The main purpose of this paper is to establish Taiwan overall macroeconometric model, which to analyze the effects under different government policies include consumption coupon and fiscal spending policy . (1) Consumption coupon: Divided into two different ways, delieve consumption coupon once and twice. If delieving consumption coupon once, it would bring a positive impacts on the current economy. For example, promotion of economic growth, reduction of unemployment rate, rise of the stock price and interest rate and producing of inflation. On the other hand, if delieving consumption coupon twice, it would prolong and strengthen the positive economic effect. (2)Fiscal policy: The influence of the temporarily increasing of the government expenditure is the same as those of deleving consumption coupon once. After comparing the effects of two policies, we found that the latter has relatively stronger effect than the former. After the end of the two policies, the disappearance of exogenous stimulation and the inflation produced the downward revision strength that could cause the next economic recession, the increasing of unemployment rate and so on. After comparing the next phase of downward revision strength, we found that the downward effects of the former relatively less than those of the latter. If let the former policy keep going to the next period, the effect of delieving consumption coupon not only prolong the effect of delieving consumption coupon but also defer the downward revision strength to the third period. The conclusion is, if the international economy is steady, we should choose the fiscal policy; if it is not steady, we should choose the consumption coupon. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/26007 |
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