中共對拉丁美洲政策及其對台灣之影響

Abstract

近年中國為確保其經濟發展所需能源之不虞匱乏，不斷強化與拉丁美洲經貿關係，儘管拉丁美洲距離遙遠，卻擁有中共經濟發展所需的原物料與能源，也是限縮台灣國際空間的戰場，更是中共宣揚建立多元化國際新秩序、挑戰後冷戰時期「一超多強」格局的場所，甚至是成就中共成為未來全球主要強權之一的重要基石。因此，對中共而言，積極發展與拉丁美洲關係有其必要。 過去由於中共本身力量不足，加以拉美是美國後院，故中共難有插足空間，但隨著中共經濟力崛起，且美國因伊拉克及阿富汗戰爭無睱它顧，同時近年美國與拉美部分國家如委內瑞拉及古巴間裂痕益深，因此提供中共介入拉美的機會。從相關研究發現，雖然中共在短期間內無法挑戰美國在拉美的地位，但與拉美國家之政經關係將日益深化，對台灣維繫與拉美國家之邦誼產生壓力與衝擊。 本文主要從中共對外戰略思想著手，研究中共每個時期對拉丁美洲的政策之變化，探索其中異同之處，分析中共對拉美政策的歷史脈絡，並試圖對21世紀中共對拉美政策進行成效評估，以及對台灣產生的可能影響。

In order to secure its energy supply for economy development, China enhances trade relations with Latin America continuously. Although distant, Latin America has many attractions to China—raw materials and energy, the arena to contain Taiwan’s international space, the place to challenge “one super power” structure and to promote diverse global new order post the Cold War, and even the corner stone to accomplish its role as one of the major powers. Therefore, it is necessary for China to actively develop the relations with Latin America. In the past, China had limited influence in Latin America due to insufficient national strength and the fact that Latin American has been the “backyard” of the United States. Nevertheless, with its growing economic power, plus the over stretch of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the deepened cracks among the United States and some Latin American countries such as Venezuela and Cuba, China has gained the chance to play a role in Latin America. Although some researches show that China can not challenge the United States in Latin America in the near future, the increasing political and economic relations among China and Latin America countries will impact Taiwan’s diplomatic ties in this area. This study is to compare PRC’s Latin America policies in different stages based on its external strategic thinking, and to explore the historical changes as well as the assessments of PRC’s Latin America policies and their likely impacts on Taiwan.