地理資訊系統與歷史地理的結合：噶瑪蘭土地利用變遷與人口成長

Abstract

近代的人口研究常將人口數視為基本資料，對此並未有太多的著墨，但由於過去人口統計的不確實，歷史人口遂成為重要的研究議題。在漢人社會多子多孫的觀念下，人口成長會漸漸的逼近環境負載力，故可援引環境負載力的觀點，由田園面積的改變來詮釋人口成長，但這種方式受限於清治臺灣土地資料的不確實，難以應用在臺灣歷史人口研究，所幸，籍由GIS與地理統計的協助，得以重構1796~1895年的土地利用，計算原住民、旱田、水田三種土地利用的面積，經轉換後求出環境負載力，並與人口史料進行比較，結果顯示，大部份的時間二者相當接近，少部份則因自然增加須一段時間才能接近環境負載力而有較大的差距。

Recent population studies often regard population count as basic data, hence often do not spend too much time writing on these data. However, past data are often inaccurate, historical population has become an interesting research topic. With the China tradition idea of “the more descendants, the more auspices”, the population growth will close to Carrying Capacity. Then we can follow the concept of Carrying Capacity and use the area of dry farmland and paddy field to explain the trend of population growth. But when these lands were transformed into use of cultivation was not recorded, this method is not so working to prove Taiwan census data in Ching Dynasty. Fortunately, with the help of GIS, we can rebuild the land use data from 1796 to 1895 and calculate the Carrying Capacity by determining the area of aboriginal lands, dry farmlands and paddy fields. After comparing the calculated Carrying Capacity with the population census data of the Ching Dynasty, it was found that the two are not far off in the greater part. Some differences are because natural increase requires some lag time for population growth to reach Carrying Capacity.