由清算價值與自救成功可能性之關係探討政府應否保護問題銀行

Abstract

本研究係透過清算價值的高低與自救成功可能性之關係探討政府應否保護問題銀行，藉由鍾俊文、陳惠玲（2001）及陳惠玲（2002）所提出的評估放款價值及銀行淨值之基本架構，以民國89年TEJ推估之逾放比率超過10%的12家問題銀行做為研究樣本，進行實證分析，得出以下結論： 一、 實證研究結果顯示「清算價值較高的問題銀行，較有機會經由被併購或其他方式自救成功，而清算價值較低的問題銀行，往往在倒閉前，自救成功的機會較低。」故在某個條件下政府有保護問題銀行的必要。 二、 政府必須非常注意的是，清算價值低的銀行並不能因為政府保護問題銀行相關政策因而自救成功，相反的只是拖延其被接管的時程，而金融問題一旦拖得越久，則無遠景、經營不善、自有資本比率低的銀行就有越長的時間存續，其經營者就越有很強烈的動機追求高風險或掏空銀行資產，所以本研究建議政府面對清算價值低的問題銀行最好盡快處理、促其退場，免得缺口愈來愈大。 三、 本研究意圖創造另一個立即糾正措施之判斷指標，即當問題銀行「調整後之淨值」或「調整後之清算價值（調整後之淨值加計分行據點價值）」低於多少時，政府就應立即介入處理，然而根據實證研究結果，本研究採用之方法仍舊無法於事前即正確決定東企、中華銀、日盛及華僑銀應否接管或清算。因此銀行是否需要被接管或清算與否，其決定因素相當多，不能只單看淨值或清算價值是否為負值來做決定，尚且存在其他質化因素需要被仔細考量，如銀行管理團隊的優劣。 四、 建議政府於銀行發生財務危機後，立即對該行進行實地查核，瞭解該行實際清算價值高低，以決定是否該保護該行，或是立即接管該行，以避免損失擴大。

Based on Zhong, Jun-Wen & Chen, Hui-Ling (2001) and Chen, Hui-Ling (2002) valuation model, this study discusses whether or not the government should save the problem banks by investigating the correlation between liquidation value and success of self-help of the banks. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The empirical results show that banks having a financial crisis with higher liquidation value show a higher chance of recovering by being merged or other self-help method, while ones with lower liquidation value display a higher possibility of bankruptcy and a lower chance of being merged before taken over or liquidated. So under some conditions, the protection from the government regarding banks with financial struggles is necessary. 2. It must be noted that that banks facing financial struggles with lower liquidation value can not solely rely on the protection policies to escape from the crisis. On the contrary the longer the time, the higher the risk; if the crisis is not solved immediately, it will be out of control. Furthermore, the management of banks facing a financial crisis for a long-term period would be tempted to use a high-risk method to save the bank, therefore sinking it into a bigger crisis. Thus, it is highly recommended that the government should take immediate repercussions to solve these crises as effectively and efficiently as possible. 3. This research aims to find another trigger of PCA. However, as proved by the empirical studies from Taitung business bank（東企）, Chinese bank（中華商銀）, Jih-Sun international bank（日盛） and bank of oversea Chinese（僑銀）, it is very difficult to determine whether or not to take over the bank before the crisis reaches a limit. Thus, the decision of whether or not to interfere and take over a bank facing a crisis not only determines on the net worth or liquidation value, but also on other factors such as management, and staffs. 4. Finally, it is highly recommended that the government should do the due diligence for problem banks in order to investigate their true liquidation value. By then, the government can make best use of the information to determine whether those banks should be taken over or not.