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標題: | 我國中央政府財政收支調整之研究:1968–2004 Balancing the Budget through Revenue or Spending Adjustment? An Empirical Study on Taiwan’s Fiscal Policy: 1968-2004 |
作者: | "Wen-Chi, Lee" 李文綺 |
指導教授: | 林向愷 |
關鍵字: | 跨期財政平衡,利率,財政赤字衝擊,向量自我迴歸,政府收支動態調整,一般衝擊回應分析, Intertemporal Budget Constraint,Interest Rate,Deficit Shock,VAR,Government revenue and spending adjustment,Generalized Impulse Response, |
出版年 : | 2007 |
學位: | 博士 |
摘要: | 本文以跨期預算平衡式為架構,觀察我國中央政府長期財政規劃是否具有永續性,及面對短期財政失衡時政府收支的動態調整模式。以57–93會計年度為樣本期間,實證檢定結果顯示,我國中央政府財政行為不具永續性質;雖然政府財政不具永續性,但我們透過符合模型限制條件的有限制VAR架構,觀察在跨期財政平衡約制下,政府收入及政府支出的動態調整模式,一般衝擊回應估計結果顯示,由名目面角度觀察,財政赤字發生未預料到衝擊對我國利率變動影響有限,而名目面與實質面財政數列皆顯示,赤字衝擊發生後,政府多以支出面來調整支應;亦即說明我國中央政府如欲達成跨期財政平衡,根據過去經驗,政府可採行的調整機制應由支出面來調整。 This paper investigates whether Taiwanese central government can maintain a balanced intertemporal budget over time, and how to balance his intertemporal budget (through increasing revenue or decreasing spending). In sample period: 1968-2004, the empirical results do not support the hypothesis of a balanced intertemporal budget. But by estimating a restricted VAR which satisfied the intertemporal budget constraint, we can observe the dynamic effects of the government revenue and spending (both in real or nominal term) through generalized impulse response functions. Quantitative results show that (1) unexpected deficit shock has a relatively small impact on the nominal interest rate; (2) the government reaches a balanced budget mostly by decreasing government spending and this holds both in nominal and real term. The second result means that based on historical experience the government tend to decrease his spending in order to balance the intertemporal budget. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/24905 |
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顯示於系所單位: | 經濟學系 |
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