產業結構變遷對電子產業與傳統產業價值創造之影響研究

Abstract

Feltham and Ohlson （1995）提出以會計為基礎的股價評價模型，有實證上的效度存在，但其在非會計資訊部分並未明確定義與說明，因此本研究以產業結構變遷衡量變數（勞力密集度、資本密集度、技術密集度、外銷依存度、產業成長貢獻度、產業偏成長率、用人費用率）作為非會計資訊之衡量，探究不同變數對企業價值攸關性之影響。 本研究以Barth et al.（1998）所作的模型調整為基礎，採用兩種實證模式，包括股價模式（price model）及報酬率模式（return model），分析各項產業變遷指標對公司市場價值與報酬率之影響情形。首先以1995年（民國84年）至2004年（民國93年）期間電子業、紡織業、塑膠業、橡膠業、機械業等共420家上市公司之樣本資料作實證分析，再進一步探討區分產業別、上市年度別後對公司價值創造影響之不同。 研究結果發現：（1）產業結構變遷與企業市場價值及報酬率呈現相關，技術密集度、外銷依存度會對企業價值帶來正面之助益，勞力密集度、用人費用率則對企業價值創造產生負面之效果。（2）產業類別不同，對企業價值創造會產生影響之相關產業結構變遷指標亦不同。（3）企業上市年度之差異，因上市制度的改變，可以解釋企業價值創造穩定性之不同。（4）產業類別和企業上市年度別之相乘效果對企業市場價值亦存在顯著相關性。

There are quite satisfying empirical findings in Ohlson’s equity valuation model. However, there is no clear definition in “other information” of this model. Therefore, we choose several factors of industrial structure changes as other information, such as labor density, capital density, technical density, export ratio, industrial growth rate of contribution and wage ratio, to examine what variables explain the business value relevance. Based on the adjusted model of Barth, Clement, Foster, and Kasznik (1998), we introduce two kinds of empirical models, including price model and return model, to analyze what effects that changes in industrial structure make on firms’ market value and returns. First, we carry out some empirical analysis according to the data of 420 listed companies from 1995 to 2004, including electronic industry, textile industry, plastic industry, rubber industry, and engineering industry. Furthermore, we discuss the different effects on business value creation by separate industries and IPO years. The major empirical findings are as follows: (1) changes in industrial structure have effects on firms’ market value and returns. Technical density and export ratio are significantly positively related to business value, but labor density and wage ratio are significantly negatively related. (2) In separate industries, different factors of industrial structure changes have different impacts on business value creation. (3) Different IPO years, due to major change of IPO system, provide significant explanatory power for the stability in business value creation. (4) The interaction effect of industries and IPO years on business value is significantly associated.