以賽局觀點分析電信產業之競爭及預測無線寬頻技術對電信產業生態之影響

Abstract

我國自1997年電信自由化後，新的行動通信業者與固定通信業者陸續加入電信市場，但因關鍵資源的限制而有不同之發展，行動通信產業形成三足鼎立之勢，固定通信產業則仍是中華電信一家獨大。網際網路服務產業為第二類電信業者，在我國寬頻上網以ADSL為主流的情況下，亦與固定通信產業有著類似發展，亦為中華電信一家獨大。本研究以這三個產業的競爭為範圍，以賽局觀點探討過去之競爭模式，並以此為基礎，來推測行動通信產業、固定通信產業、有線與無線網際網路服務業，在無線寬頻技術發展與賽局互動觀點下，其產業生態可能的發展與變化。 本研究歸納之結論包括：1. 當關鍵資源(最後一哩用戶迴路)被壟斷時，下游產業即不易擁有競爭的環境，尤其關鍵資源擁有者又同時經營下游產業時。2. 新服務推出初期，業者有誘因進行價格戰；市場需求趨於成熟飽和時，業者較無誘因從事價格戰，加強成就隱性勾結的條件。3. 業者在長期互動中，採取不同程度的跟隨策略，釋放訊息，有利達成隱性勾結。 推測3G服務對行動業者競爭之影響：1. 3G會刺激新的需求，業者有誘因從事價格戰。2. 新進3G業者加入戰場，參與者的增加將促使賽局的改變，新進3G業者為早日達到損益兩平的關鍵用戶數(Critical Mass)，增加價格戰的可能性。3. 當新進3G業者之目標轉為用戶數與利潤並重時，業者間的隱性勾結將會再現，而且，達成隱性勾結的時程將會縮短。 推測WiMAX對電信產業之變化：1. 新進固網業者將積極尋找最後一哩用戶迴路之替代方案，並增加數據與視訊服務。ISP業者亦將自建或透過與固網業者合作方式，增加最後一哩用戶迴路的取得來源。2. WiMAX網路業者將要求電總分配WiMAX專屬頻譜。行動業者則會遊說電總不分配或要求以投標之方式，分配WiMAX專屬頻譜，增加WiMAX業者經營成本。3. 各電信產業因技術與服務的整合，使個別產業垂直價值鏈被打破，走向價值鏈的水平整合(Horizontal Convergence)。 關鍵字：固定通信產業、行動通信產業、網際網路服務產業、賽局、價值網、競合理論、無線都會網路。

The pass of the “Three Telecom Acts” in 1996 introduced a new competition era on telecommunication industry. Different critical resource requirement has caused a significant step forward a competition in mobile industry, while Chung Hua Telecommunication still possesses a huge market share in fixed telecommunication service and ISP industries. The scope of the research was limited to the three industries for their competition in the past and future development of industry structure with the introduction of Broadband Wireless Access technology. The research found that: 1) When critical resource is controlled by a single enterprise, there is hardly a competitive environment, esp. the enterprise is also engaged in the downstream industry. 2) The introduction of a new service will probably cause a various kinds of price competition and its saturation will weak the incentive to a price competition, which will also increase the possibility of tacit collusion. 3) During long-term interactions, tit-for-tat strategy will deliver a signal to reach a tacit collusion among enterprises. The research concluded a forecast in 3G service that: 1) The introduction of 3G service will cause a price competition in mobile industry. 2) The new player in the game, new entrant in 3G service industry, will cause a different outcome of the game. Its entry will increase the possibility to price competition under critical customer base requirement, coming with a break-even goal. 3) Tacit collusion will be reached within a shorter time period with the past interaction experience in 2G when the new 3G entrants switch their focus on profitability. The research also concluded a forecast in telecommunication industry structure with WiMAX introduction that: 1) Fixed telecommunication operators except Chung Huan, would look for an alternative to DSL last mile and add data and video services. ISP would also construct or cooperate with fixed telecommunication enterprise for a last mile as second source. 2) WiMAX operators will request The Directorate General of Telecommunications for a dedicated spectrum and the mobile operators will lobby the Authority for a spectrum auction to increase WiMAX operator’s cost. 3) The convergence of broadband wireless access technology and triple play service will shift the current vertical supply chain to a horizontal convergence in the future supply chain. Key words: Fixed telecommunication service industry, mobile telecommunication service industry, ISP, Game, Value net, co-opetition, WiMAX