中國鋼鐵公司股票價值分析

Abstract

本篇研究主要的目的是探討中國鋼鐵公司是否是值得投資的標的，並希望可以透過統計方法合理評價其股票價值。首先透過收集次級資料的解析，來認識鋼鐵產業，從鋼鐵供需到整體產業的發展。然後透過葛拉漢的價值投資的概念，了解中鋼的管理團隊、比較其經營績效接著評估其未來發展策略的投資案，最後利用本益比法來評估中鋼合理股價。根據本篇研究結論:中鋼是值得投資的標的，因為它符合葛拉漢的價值投資的條件:1.從本研究可以認識鋼鐵產業並知道他有其永續發展的理由。2.中鋼的經營團隊是值得令人信任的，不論是其經營績效或監督機制。3.中鋼公司的內在價值遠高於其在市場上的價格。另外由於中鋼股票表現受到景氣影響，所以本研究實證分析透過迴歸分析得到結論:可利用台灣地區國民年均所得來預測其股價區間，這樣的預測是保守的操作方式，當股價接近預測下限是可強力買進股票；反之當其股價接近預測上線時，則需出清手上持股。

This article study on major purpose of exploring China Steel Corp. is for investment in the subject of hope and statistical methods reasonable assessment of its stock value. First of all the information by the collection sub resolve to recognize steel industry, iron and steel supply and demand from the overall industrial development, through Benjamin Graham’s value the concept investment, understand the steel management team, to compare their business performance and the overall development strategy, lastly, use simple ratio in law to assess steel reasonable price. Under this title research findings: China Steel is for investment in the subject because it is consistent Benjamin Graham’s value investment conditions: 1. From this research to know steel industry and know that he has its sustainable development. 2. China Steel's management team is worth a trusted, whether in its business performance or oversight mechanisms. 3. China steel companies in the intrinsic value far higher than its market price. The China Steel stock performance can be economy, and so the study of HSBC analysis may be the use of Taiwan's annual income to predict its stock interval, this outlook is conservative mode of operation, when stock prices close is a minimum of forecast to strong buying stocks; on the contrary when its stock close on the line forecast it would need clearance holding hands.