基於製程進步之製程需求組合現象分析

Abstract

在高科技產業中，技術進步往往會對產業結構帶來重大影響，而在半導體領域，因產品更迭快速、生命週期短暫，價格下滑速度較其他產業快速，廠商普遍透過製程微縮增加單位晶圓生產力，以維持持續性的成本降低。但隨著產業持續朝向先進製程節點邁進，IC設計廠商開始面臨了指數性上升的設計成本，在這樣的情況下，產業對先進製程的移轉速度可能已經出現了減緩。本文乃是從製程需求組合的角度切入，分析在設計成本轉折出現下，產業中製程研發與需求間缺口之變化，首先建立晶圓生產力指標指標，針對1996年至2007年等十二年之歷史資料進行探討，並檢定轉折出現年份，之後從成本的角度切入，在考量產業趨勢轉折下，建構IC設計廠商之平均成本函數之效率前沿，推測未來產業的可能變化。最終，本文發現在2002年後，產業間製程研發與需求間的差距由過去穩定維持在1至1.5個世代的情況，逐年上升至2007年時的2個世代，之後，根據動態模型的預測，在未來產業製程研發速度預期出現減緩下，此差距可能會暫時出現持平的現象，但在指數性上升的設計成本影響力逐漸加大下，此差距預計將會日益擴大。

Technological progression is one of the most important critical factors in many high-tech industries. In semiconductor area, ASP (Average Selling Price) is eroded faster than other industries because of short product lifecycle. To maintain normal profit, the most widespread method that the firms used is scaling. Firms can get more productivity per wafer by enter more advance technology node, and bring economic of scale. But the design cost is exponential increasing with the technology progression. In this situation, the new technology node adoption rate is slower than the past. In this research, I attempt to analysis the gap between technology R&D and demand by technology node demand portfolio, and forecast the possible phenomenon base on design cost trend changing. In the first, I designed the wafer productivity index and used it to describe the industry characteristic during 1996 to 2007. Then, I used the change point analysis to test the timing of the change. The third, the efficient frontier of the IC design house was modeled and used to forecast the future. By the process, I found that after 2002, the gap between technology R&D and demand is increasing every year from below 1.5 generations to more than 2 generations. After 2007, the gap will maintain the temporary stability because of the slowing in technology progression. But the gap will finally expand because of the exponential increasing design cost.