從台股指數及台灣景氣信號分數判讀共同基金分期及分額投資之研究

Abstract

本論文為探討共同基金分期及分額之投資研究，其主要參考指標將以過去台股指數及台灣景氣信號分數為判斷值。本研究目的係因近年來，共同基金已為台灣投資人投資之重要工具之一，不論在投資總額、受益人人數及年齡分佈，均有逐漸成長及擴大之趨勢。 景氣循環信號分數可謂是股市的櫥窗，也是表達人類經濟活動繁枯之指標，一般投資人通常會在景氣信號分數低落時將其投資活動停止，或降低其投資部位；反之，則擴大其投資行為或愈更積極，本研究參考過去台股指數之走勢及國內共同基金之規模，運用過去十年台股指數、景氣信號分數，搭配股票型基金進行不同點位之投資迴歸，以投資時點、投資金額及獲利買回與否之各式方法，運用投資期間之內部報酬率（IRR，Internal Rate of Return），比較其投資台股基金獲利狀況。意即當台股指數及景氣循環信號分數高於平均值之上時，投資人所投入資金之獲利情況遠低於平均值之下之投資；若再將是否適時執行獲利了結之投資行為考量其中時，就發現其差異性更加明顯。換言之，投資人運用共同基金，因其分散之屬性，雖不若個股投資之風險高，但仍須掌握長期經濟變動之投資趨勢。 最後，為協助一般投資者對於投資共同基金時點之判斷，本研究以台股指數及景氣信號分數為平均加權，判斷買賣之時點，並寫成簡單且易用之軟體，以供參考之用。同時，有鑑於過去幾年來國人投資海外基金漸趨風潮，本研究亦將此一參考值用以投資海外基金，發現其效益與投資國內基金如出一轍。希望此一研究結果能讓長期以共同基金為投資工具之投資人，更能有效運用此一方法，藉以創造更多財富。

This dissectation is focusing on the investment research of mutual funds in different installments and types. The main benchmark for the judgment is based on the TW Index and Indicator of TW economy. The purpose of the Report is that the mutual funds has been one of the main investment implements in the recent years.No matter in the investment amounts, number of investors or age groups, it has broadened increasingly. The Economy Indicator is a forecast of stock markets. It is also a signal of an economy. Usually investors will stop their investments activities when the index of the Economy Indicator is at its low scope while investors will expand the activities when it is at the other extreme. This analysis is based on the trend of TW Index in the past and the size of onshore mutual funds, referring to the past ten years average of TW Index and Economy Indicator to decide the timing and the amount for investment by TW equity mutual fund, and also if redemption or not, in order to compare the return by IRR. It could be found when the investors put their cash in the mutual fund at the time ,the index and the indicator are above the average, the return would be bad than the other hand. And we also find if investors redeem their funds when the index and the indicator are above the average, the investment return would be specially better. Consequently, investors should care more about the long-term trend of economy variety for investment, given to the mutual fund is more diversified than stock. Finally, this report offers a simple and definate application software based on the average weight of TW Index and Economy Indicator to assist investors for deciding the timing and the amount for investment. Meanwhile, according to the trend of investing offshore mutual funds by domestic investors, this report also apply the research result to offshore funds, it shows the same well performance as TW Equity funds. I appreciate this research result can provide a long –term and consistent methodology for the loyal mutual fund investors to gain the more wealth.