國際工程公司金屬價格避險研究

Abstract

中鼎工程為國內最大之工程公司，近年來積極進軍海內外建廠工程市場，由於工程承攬計價多採總價承包制，也就是所有合約工作必須於固定合約價完成，故工程公司必須有效控制工程成本，然而，近年來由於中國、印度等國經濟起飛，國際基本金屬市場有很顯著的需求增加，導致工程建廠材料均被牽動漲價，建廠成本相對提高，導致毛利下降。 不銹鋼及電線電纜均為建廠主要材料項目，在不銹鋼直接成本中有70%為鎳金屬，電線電纜直接成本中平均有50%以上為銅金屬，由於不銹鋼及電線電纜業，通常因不易控制原物料成本，而採浮動價格，不會與買方簽訂長期合約，本研究針對此關聯性進行分析，希望能利用兩者價格關聯性，設計出最適避險方式及工具，使得建廠成本得以控制，本研究利用走勢圖、回歸及相關係數等三種工具，就台灣、中國、東亞、美國及歐洲的不銹鋼與鎳、電線電纜與銅之價格關聯性進行分析，同時也對金屬價格上漲與下跌波段時的不銹鋼及電線電纜價格作細部分析。 本研究發現，利用間接避險方式是能有效控制因金屬價格變動產生之成本變化，互換合約對工程公司而言為最適避險工具；不銹鋼價與鎳價在台灣、中國、東亞地區具有高度關聯，而在美國及歐洲地區關聯性較低，而台灣及東亞地區在鎳價上漲時間接避險有效性高，中國地區在鎳價下跌時間接避險有效性高，台灣不銹鋼價約落後鎳價1~2個月，中國及東亞地區不銹鋼價約落後鎳價1個月；同樣方式分析，電線電纜與銅價於上漲及下跌時間接避險有效性均高，同時無落後反映狀況。

CTCI Corporation is the largest engineering company in Taiwan. Recent year, CTCI is eagerly enter international plant engineering market. Most project contract price were calculated by the method of lump sum turnkey, which means engineering company need to completed their works within fixed cost. An effective cost control procedure is necessary for international engineering company. However, due to the economy fast growing of China and India is causing the great demand for basic metal. It is the main reason for the cost of construction increase during recent years. Most engineering firms were forced reduce profit. Stainless steel and cable are major plant construction materials. Nickel is 70% direct cost of stainless steel and copper is 50% direct cost of cable. Due to the high market volatility, manufacturers of stainless steel and cable insist to sell on spot price and sign long term contract reluctantly. This thesis is targeted on the relationship between product and material and trying to find the best hedge solution in order to control the cost. This thesis applied three analysis methods which are trend chart, regression and Coefficient of Correlation. Analyses are focus on the price relationship of stainless steel/nickel and cable/copper in Taiwan, China, East Asia, US and Europe as well as up-trend and down-trend period. The research concluded that the cross hedge can control the cost impact from the basic metal price. Swap contract is the best hedge tool for international engineering companies’ operation. In Taiwan, China and East Asia, the price of stainless steel and nickel with high relationship but in US and Europe the relationship is lower；Taiwan and East Asia have high effective cross hedge result in the price up-trend period of Nickel and China is on the down-trend period. There are one~ two month lag for stainless steel price to reflect the nickel price in Taiwan, China and East Asia. For copper/cable there is no time lag on the price reflection and cross hedge with high effective result in Taiwan, China, East Asia, US and Europe.