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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 唐代彪(De-Piao Tang) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Tzu-Yin Lin | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 林姿吟 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T04:05:59Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2020-12-25 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2020-11-25 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/22164 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 電力是現代經濟的核心，而電力與經濟成長之間的關係一直都是許多學者樂於探討的議題，惟大多數研究都是以電力消費量等需求面去作探討。隨著近年來能源供給的配比、核電廠興廢、再生能源發展等電力供給面議題興起，本研究除了探討台灣電力需求跟經濟成長的關係外，將進一步延伸，同時也把電力供給及電價因素納入變數，進行因果關係研究，期能提供能源政策制定參考。 為探討台灣電力供給、電力需求、電價及經濟成長之間的關係，本研究使用2009年第1季至2019年第4季之發電裝置容量、電力消費量、電價及國內生產毛額等資料，透過分量迴歸法及Toda-Yamamoto Granger因果關係檢定法，並考量是否存在結構性變動，在不同分量下進行因果關係檢定。 本研究重要實證結果如下：(一)電價對電力需求於各分量皆有顯著的負影響。在電力需求較低時，影響幅度尤為明顯。(二)經濟成長對電力需求於各分量水準下皆有顯著的正影響。在電力需求較低時，影響幅度尤為明顯。(三)電價對電力供給在各分量水準下並無顯著影響。(四)電力供給相對低時，經濟成長對電力供給有顯著的正向影響，惟電力供給相對高時，經濟成長對電力供給無顯著的影響。(五)電力供給與需求在均衡時彼此互有影響，且電力需求影響較為強烈，為領導角色。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | Electricity is the core of the current economic system. The research on the relationship between electricity and economic growth has attracted great interest from many scholars for a long time. However, most studies focused on the demand side such as electricity consumption. Considering the rise of electricity supply issues in recent years, such as the proportion of energy supply sources, the development of nuclear power plants, and the development of renewable energy, this study not only studies the relationship between Taiwan's electricity demand and economic growth, but also takes electricity supply and electricity prices as variables. We study and analyze the causality of these variables, and we hope that our research results can provide the government with reference when formulating energy policies. In order to study the relationship between Taiwan's electricity supply, electricity demand, electricity price and economic growth, this study uses data such as installed capacity, electricity consumption, electricity price, and gross domestic production from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2019. We use Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test by quantile regression to test the nexus between variables, and also consider the structural breaks in the causal relationship. Then we carry out the causality test at different quantile level. The important empirical results of this study are as follows: (1) Electricity price has a significant negative impact on electricity demand at each quantile level. And when the electricity demand is relatively low, the impact is particularly obvious. (2) Economic growth has a significant positive impact on electricity demand at all quantile levels. The impact is particularly obvious when the power demand is relatively low. (3) Electricity prices have no significant impact on electricity supply at all quantile levels. (4) When electricity supply is relatively low, economic growth has a significant positive impact on electricity supply. But when electricity supply is relatively high, economic growth has no significant impact on electricity supply. (5) Electricity supply and demand influence each other when they are in equilibrium. Moreover, the impact of electricity demand is relatively strong, and it plays a leading role. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T04:05:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-2511202015185200.pdf: 1957833 bytes, checksum: 65ba68d28fe543f4aadb4edbef5b7f0c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2020 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員會審定書 i 謝辭 ii 摘要 iii Abstract iv 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究緣起與問題意識 1 壹、研究緣起 1 貳、問題意識 2 第二節 研究目的與主要研究問題 4 壹、研究目的 4 貳、主要研究問題 5 第三節 論文架構與流程 6 第二章 文獻探討 8 第一節 我國電力發展現況 8 壹、電力供給 8 貳、電力需求 11 參、電價 12 第二節 能源與經濟成長關係文獻 15 第三節 分量迴歸相關文獻 17 第四節 小結 20 第三章 研究方法 21 第一節 研究流程 21 第二節 ADF單根檢定 22 第三節 Toda-Yamamoto Granger因果關係檢定 23 第四節 分量迴歸法 24 第五節 結構性變動 25 第六節 模型設定 26 第四章 實證結果與分析 29 第一節 資料說明及分析 29 壹、變數設定及資料來源 29 貳、樣本分析 30 第二節 單根檢定及最適落後期 33 第三節 結構性變動 34 第四節 Toda-Yamamoto Granger因果關係檢定 35 第五章 結論與建議 39 第一節 主要研究發現 39 第二節 政策建議 41 第三節 後續研究建議 42 參考文獻 44 壹、中文 44 貳、英文 44 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 結構性變動 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 電力 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 經濟成長 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 分量迴歸 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Toda-Yamamoto Granger因果關係檢定 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test | en |
| dc.subject | economic growth | en |
| dc.subject | quantile regression | en |
| dc.subject | electricity | en |
| dc.subject | structural break | en |
| dc.title | 電力供需、電價及經濟成長之關係研究－分量迴歸的應用 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | A Study on the Relations between Electricity Supply and Demand, Electricity Price and Economic Growth–An Application of Quantile Regression Analysis | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 109-1 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.coadvisor | 張倉耀(Tsangyao Chang) | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 陳達新(Dar-Hsin Chen),劉炳麟(Bing-Lin Liu) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 電力,經濟成長,分量迴歸,Toda-Yamamoto Granger因果關係檢定,結構性變動, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | electricity,economic growth,quantile regression,Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test,structural break, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 47 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202004354 | |
| dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2020-11-26 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 國家發展研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 國家發展研究所 | |
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