傳統節慶對家禽價量關連性之探討－以臺北市家禽批發市場為例

Abstract

節慶的存在是人類文明的象徵，在早期，家家戶戶僅於年節時才有家禽類可食用，而家禽又以「雞」為最大宗，吃雞則有「起家」、「吉利」、「處處是機會」等象徵意義；早期的社會因 技術不佳，雞的數量較少，因此售價較高，所以僅於傳統節慶或祭祀時才吃的到雞肉，由於科技化養殖技術之進步，雞肉已變成非常普遍且常見的主食之一。 傳統節慶有拜拜之習俗，雞肉為三牲之一，本研究主要為了解傳統節慶前後，以臺北市家禽批發市場為例，探討雞隻交易數量及價格影響之變化，使用多元線性迴歸模型，以整年度實證資料針對紅羽土雞、黑羽土雞、黑羽閹雞、烏骨雞及肉雞之每日交易數量及價格，來驗證傳統節慶前後，對於雞隻交易數量及價格之影響程度，另外加入其他因素如台北地區陰天、晴天、雨天、平均溫度、天然災害期間、前一天休市、後一天休市及季節，探討是否亦會影響雞隻交易數量及價格。 經本論文實證結果發現，傳統節慶在交易數量之影響方面，於節慶前第四天開始至前一天，紅羽土雞有顯著影響，而節慶前第四天開始至節慶當天，黑羽土雞及黑羽閹雞皆有顯著影響，烏骨雞僅於節慶前第三天至前第二天有顯著影響，肉雞僅於節慶前一天有顯著影響；傳統節慶於價格之影響方面，由節慶前第五天至後一天，對紅羽土雞、黑羽土雞、烏骨及肉雞皆無顯著影響，僅黑羽閹雞於節慶前一天有顯著影響。另外台北平均溫度、秋天及冬天變化對於雞隻交易數量及價格亦有顯著之影響。

Festival is a symbol of human civilization. In early days, families didn’t have food of poultry to eat unless in some festivals. Among them, 'chicken' is the majority due to “eating chicken” means 'Building up family', 'Lucky', 'Opportunities are everywhere' etc in Chinese tradition. In the early age, chicken is expensive so that families did not eat chicken unless in festival celebration. Nowadays, along the changes of age, chickens have become one of the most common staple foods. This study aims to understand the impacts of festivals on the quantity and price of chickens in the Taipei Poultry Wholesale Market. Using the daily data of price and quantity in each transaction of red-feather country cockerels, black-feather country cockerels, black-feather capon cockerels, black-bone country cockerels and broiler, we estimate a multivariate linear regression model to verify the changes in price and quantity of chickens among festival period. Additional factors such as cloudy, sunny, rainy, average temperature, before and after days of emergent market close due to natural disasters and seasonal factors are added to explore whether they will affect the price and quantity of chickens traded. The empirical results show that, the impact on quantity of chickens trade before and after traditional festivals, in the period from 1 to 4 days before festivals is significant only for red-feather country cockerels, in the period from the day to 4 days before festivals is significant for black-feather country cockerels and black-feather capon cockerels, in the period from 2 to 3 days before festivals is significant for black-bone country cockerels and merely in 1 day before festivals is significant for broiler. On the other hands, the impact on price of chickens trade before and after traditional festivals, in the period from 4 days before to 1 day after festivals is insignificant for red-feather country cockerels, black-feather country cockerels, black-feather capon cockerels, and broiler, only in 1 day before festival is significant for black-bone country cockerels. In addition, the factors of daily average temperature in Taipei and season are significant to affect both price and quantity of chicken’s trade.