請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/21965
標題: | 川普政府退出多邊協議之研究: 美中競逐的觀點(2017年1月至2020年9月) Research on Trump Administration Withdrawing from Multilateral Agreements: The Perspective of US-China Rivalry (January 2017-September 2020) |
作者: | Shu-Hong Chen 陳書弘 |
指導教授: | 周繼祥(Jih-Shine Chou) |
關鍵字: | 美中競逐,川普政府,多邊協議,大國關係,潛在霸權, US-China Rivalry,Trump Administration,Multilateral Agreements,Great Power Relations,Potential Hegemony, |
出版年 : | 2020 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 本研究首先透過分析美中競逐的背景,分別對軍事、經濟及跨國事務三個層次分別探討,檢視二十一世紀全球的體系結構。軍事方面,中國的軍事力量雖然力克亞洲諸國,但尚且對美國不構成太大的影響;相對的,目前依然是由繼承蘇聯武器庫及軍工業的俄羅斯為首要威脅;而經濟方面,美國實力依然處於全球首位,但中國低調且快速的崛起,讓其強大的實力步步進逼,再加上美國過去期望市場經濟可以瓦解中共的專制政體因而無所箝制,使中國持續成長到美國難以忽視的地步;在跨國事務方面,雖然美國仍掌握著國際秩序的領導權,然而近幾年中國確實有試圖主導多邊秩序的企圖,觀察其「快速崛起」和「試圖重塑國際秩序」兩個鮮明的發展特色,挑明了中國在跨國事務上確實已成為美國的首要競爭對手。 在實際政策方面,川普認為信奉國際主義是不切實際的作法,他誓言要回到蘇聯解體後美國全面主宰的黃金時代,所以他主張外交政策應把美國利益放在首位,關注國內事務甚於國際事務;而這並不是紙上談兵,事實上自2017年上任後,川普政府已帶領美國退出10個多邊組織及協議,且重啟談判的更是不計其數。這些退出的多邊協議涵蓋經濟、軍事、人權等議題,而退出的理由也是五花八門,有危害美國經濟、侵蝕國家安全、違反美國主權及無視盟友權益等。當然,川普政府退出多邊協議的行為牽涉複雜的國際戰略佈局,並非每項決定都如聲明所提及的單一理由或是表面原因,為了要與中國打長期的消耗戰,川普政府多方面的調整原有配置,這也讓美國在國際佈局上的調動與過去大相逕庭。 最後,川普政府拒絕領導國際秩序的後果主要表現在三個層面: 第一個層面是凸顯出美國本身遭遇的問題,當川普不斷吆喝世界虧欠了美國的時候,也說明美國開始在乎那些過去無須計較的支出或是努力,這除了是美國走下絕對無敵神壇的表徵,其極端突進的美國優先政策,更加強了國際對美國實力的懷疑;第二個層面則是中國接替美國主導國際秩序的可能性開始被討論,美中對峙的狀況反映出中國在國際社會的存在威脅到美國地位,在意圖方面,中國的外交戰略從封閉到積極;在能力方面,中國透過經濟發展嶄露的硬實力表現出十足的野心;然而,在軟實力方面則受盡各國的質疑,成為未來深化國際合作的最大隱憂。至於第三個層面,則是凸顯出人類跨界合作的必要性,多邊關係原意就是要處理人類共同遭遇的問題,而美國的退出不但打亂了全球治理的進程,也曝露出全球治理的脆弱性,既有的運作機制更因而表現下滑,未來在面對全新的挑戰時,人類將因為無法團結而付出代價。 Through an analysis of the rivalry between the United States and China, my research discusses military, economy, and cross-border issues separately to analyze the global structure in the 21st century. In terms of the military, China is still a long way from reaching the level of America. In fact, Russia still poses the biggest military threat to America. In terms of the economy, America continues to lead the world; however, it wrongly assuming that China’s autocratic government would be incompatible with a free-market economy, did not pay enough attention to China’s development in years past. As a result, China’s current economic influence has increased. In terms of cross-border issues, it can be observed from two features of China’s global policy—“rapid growth” and “attempt to restructure the international order”—that China in fact has ambitions of challenging America’s leadership. To sum up, it is clear that China is already America’s foremost rival in cross-border issues. When it comes to realistic policymaking, Trump vowed to return America to its golden age of world dominance by putting America’s national interests first. Trump’s promises were not just empty words. Since 2017, under the Trump administration, America has withdrawn from 10 multilateral agreements, and renegotiated countless more. These agreements concerned a variety of fields, including the economy, the military, and human rights. The reasons given to justify withdrawing from the agreements were similarly diverse: Trump argued that they harmed America’s economy, threatened America’s security, and violated America’s sovereignty, etc. The strategy to exit multilateral agreements is connected to America’s complex and comprehensive global plan. In order to deal with the long-term conflict with China, the Trump administration amended America’s former global strategy which drastically changed America’s role in the international order. The Trump administration’s refusal to lead the world reflects three facts. First, America began to care about those expenditures which they did not pay attention to before. Separately, the over-aggressive policy of “America First” has eroded the trust between America and other countries. Second, it has triggered discussion of whether China can replace America as the world leader. It is clear that China has extended its ambition through rapid economic development. However, China’s promotion of soft power has not gained the trust of most other countries, limiting the possibilities for further global cooperation. Third, it shows the necessity of cross-border cooperation between governments. The withdrawal of America from many of these agreements disturbs the agenda of global governance and exposes the fragility of global cooperation. The weaknesses of the current multilateral system have disastrous consequences for countries around the world in the event of any upcoming global challenges. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/21965 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202004413 |
全文授權: | 未授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 國家發展研究所 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
U0001-1012202019013700.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 2.52 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。