經濟指標與住宅火險保費關聯性之探討

Abstract

近年來台灣地震越來越頻繁，地震難以預測且防範措施絕對不可少；而火災亦是時常發生，更是不能忽略。人們購屋無論是投資或自住而向銀行貸款，銀行因為擔心火災或地震造成房屋（抵押品）損失時，貸款人無力償還，債權屬於銀行因而要求投保「住宅火災及地震基本保險」，文中簡稱「住宅火險」表示之。目前市場上住宅火災保險涵蓋地震基本保險，其中地震基本保險為固定保費及額度之政策性保險，使人們住宅同時有遭受地震及火災之雙重保障。 本研究目的探討經濟變數影響消費者投保住宅火險之投保率和保費收入外，是否有其它可行的保險誘因及配套措施能提高住宅火險之保費收入。從總體經濟來探討經濟成長率、消費者物價指數、房價指數、銀行貸款利率、全國購屋貸款等指數影響產險公司住宅火險收入多寡之參考依據，將利用相關性分析、因果關係檢定及向量自我迴歸VAR模型檢定等計量方法，建立實證模型來探討影響住宅火險保費收入之關聯性。至2017年12月底止，我國住宅火險有效保單件數為近280萬件，以全國住宅總戶數約860萬戶來計算其住宅火險投保率為32.5%，顯示目前仍有高達67.5%家庭缺乏安全意識未投保，暴露在風險中。然而，災害意外無法預料，住宅財產安全應事先具備適當保障，日常生活才能安心。 本文中分析銀行貸款戶及非貸款戶投保住宅火險情形，顯示要保人大多基於貸款需要被迫投保甚於本身風險規劃而自願投保之比例多，自願投保住宅火險之投保人數偏低，分析非貸款戶是否有其它因素可提高其住宅火險投保率，提供建議及誘因促進住宅火險投保率及保費收入，增進保險業者之利潤及保障人們居住安全。

In recent years, earthquake occurs more and more frequently in Taiwan. It is hardly predictable,and the precautions against earthquakes are essential. Fire, which also struck often,cannot be ignored more so. When people purchase a house for self-occupying or for investment and apply mortgage from banks, banks, as the creditor, are worried about default risk when the collateral are subjected to loss due to fire or earthquake.Banks tend to ask mortgage customers to be covered by “Residential Fire and Earthquake Basic Insurance” (“Residential Fire Insurance” in abbreviation). Residential Fire Insurance in the market contains Earthquake Basic Insurance of which premium rate and sum-assured are fixed and protect the residential properties from both earthquakes and fire disasters. The purposes of this stud are to study how economic variables impact on the ratio of having Residential Fire Insurance and the premium income and to investigate whether there are any other feasible incentives or complementary measures to increase the premium income of Residential Fire Insurance. The study is to establish an empirical model to study how the premium income of Residential Fire Insurance is impacted by the macroeconomic factors such as Economic Growth Rate, Consumer Price Index, Housing Price Index, Bank’s Interest Rate on Loans, and National Mortgage Index by quantitative methodologies such as Correlation Analysis, Causality Check, and Vector Auto Regression. Until the end of December 2017, there are nearly 2.8 million in-force Residential Fire Insurance policies, and the ratio of having coverage is 32.5% based on 8.6 million households in total. It reveals that up to 67.5% of households are not covered due to lack of security awareness and exposed to risk.However, accidental loss is not predictable, and residential properties should be properly protected providing peace of mind for residents in their daily life. The thesis analyzes the statistics of Residential Fire Insurance covering mortgage customers and non-mortgage customers respectively. It reveals that most policyholders who apply mortgage from banks are forced to apply Residential Fire Insurance and that fewer policyholders voluntarily apply for Residential Fire Insurance.The thesis also studies whether there are any other factors to increase the ratio of having Residential Fire Insurance and provides suggestions and incentives to increase the ratio in order to enhance the profitability of insurers and protect people’s residential safety.