中國大陸銀行多角化與經營績效的關係研究

Abstract

近年來，隨著中國大陸經濟進入「新常態」、「利率市場化」改革的進行以及網路資訊科技的發展，中國大陸商業銀行開始逐漸向多角化經營模式轉型。本文通過理論分析和實證模型兩個方面，對多角化經營與銀行經營績效的關係進行了具體的闡釋。 在理論分析層面，本文首先介紹了範疇經濟理論、多角經營理論、綜效理論和資產組合理論的理論依據，隨後對中國大陸大型國有銀行、股份制銀行和城市商業銀行的多角化指標以及經營績效的相關指標進行了趨勢分析，並具體揭示了三類銀行收入、資產和負債結構的發展變化。最後，本文通過對銀行收入、資產和負債結構與銀行績效的影響機制分析，提出了四個假設供實證模型檢驗。 在實證分析部分，本文利用由赫芬達爾指數（Herfindahl Index,HHI）演化而來的多角化指數（DIVI/DIVA/DIVL）作為解釋變數，利用銀行經營績效指標（ROA/TQ/NPL/LCR/TAI）作為被解釋變數，建立以追蹤資料（即面板數據，panel data）為基礎的多元線性模型。本文運用25家A股上市銀行2008-2017這十年間每季度為一期的追蹤資料，對商業銀行多角化與經營績效的關係進行了系統分析。隨後，本文通過將樣本劃分為是否為股份制銀行和是否為城市商業銀行，對銀行性質與多角化對經營績效的影響的相關性進行了更加深入的分析。 通過上述分析研究，本文得出最終結論：收入和資產的多角化經營有利於提高銀行盈利性，但負債多角化經營相反；多角化總體有利於提高銀行流動性，但同時也會犧牲銀行貸款資產的安全性；資產和負債的多角化有利於提高銀行成長性，收入多角化則對成長性有不利影響。同時，本文還指出，不同性質的銀行，其多角化程度對經營績效的影響有所不同。總體來說，多角化經營對銀行經營績效的正面效果更強，但針對不同性質的銀行，應該側重的多角化方向也有所不同。 最後，根據上述研究結果，本文從銀行經營層面和政府監管層面分別提出了多角度的相關建議，以期對中國大陸商業銀行多角化經營的推進和銀行經營績效的提高有所借鑒和參考。

In recent years, as Mainland China's economy has entered the 'new normal', 'interest rate marketization' reforms deepening and the development of online information technology, Chinese commercial banks have begun to gradually transform into the diversification strategy. Through theoretical analysis and empirical model, this paper gives a concrete explanation of the relationship between diversification and bank operation performance. In terms of theoretical analysis, firstly this paper introduces the scope economy theory, diversification theory, synergy theory and asset portfolio theory. Then, this paper analyzes the diversification indicators of nationalized banks, joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks in mainland China and related indicators of banking performance. This paper also reveals the development and changes of the income, assets and liabilities structure of the three types of banks. Finally, this paper proposes four hypotheses for empirical model testing through the analysis of the impact mechanism of bank income, asset and liability structure and bank performance. In terms of empirical analysis, this paper uses the Diversification Index (DIVI/DIVA/DIVL) evolved from the Herfindahl Index (HHI) as explanatory variables and the bank's operating performance indicators (ROA/TQ/NPL/LCR/TAI) as explained variables, to establish a multivariate linear model based on Panel data. This paper uses the panel data of 25 A-share listed banks in the quarter of 2008-2017 to systematically analyze the relationship between commercial banks' diversification and business performance. Subsequently, this paper makes a more in-depth analysis of the correlation between the types of the bank and the impact of diversification on business performance by dividing the sample into whether it is a joint-stock bank or a urban commercial bank. Through the above analysis and research, the paper draws the final conclusion.The diversified operation of income and assets is conducive to improving the profitability of banks, but the diversification of liabilities is the opposite.The diversification is generally conducive to improving bank liquidity, but at the same time it will also sacrifice bank loan assets’ security.The diversification of assets and liabilities is conducive to improving bank growth, while income diversification has a negative impact on growth. At the same time, the paper also points out that the impact of diversification on bank performance vary in different bank types.In general, the diversification strategy has a stronger positive effect on the bank's operating performance, but the direction of diversification that should be focused on banks of different types is also different. Finally, based on the above research results, this paper puts forward various suggestions from bank management strategy and the government supervision. The author hopes that these suggestions will help Chinese commercial banks adopt better diversification strategies and improving bank performance.