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標題: | 中國面對南海領土爭議的策略選擇:
以處理與越南及菲律賓爭議為例(2002-2018) The Analysis of China’s Strategic Choice in the South China Sea Territorial Disputes: Case Studies on Dealing with Vietnam and The Philippines(2002-2018) |
作者: | Yu-Ning Chang 張祐寧 |
指導教授: | 張登及(Teng-Chi Chang) |
關鍵字: | 南海領土爭議,中越關係,中菲關係,黃岩島,西沙群島, Territorial Disputes of South China Sea,Sino-Vietnam Relations,Sino-Philippines Relations,Scarborough Shoal,Paracel Islands, |
出版年 : | 2019 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 南中國海(South China Sea)的領土爭議,在東南亞的權力競賽中逐漸白熱化,近年來中國在國家主席習近平的領導下,在外交和軍事方面動作頻頻,對該區域的主權問題不斷增添變數。藉由梳理與回顧南海爭議之歷史脈絡,本研究著重在作為南海區域霸權的中國政府,如何處理南海議題的諸多爭議,尤其在海洋領土方面,中國聲明基於歷史因素,享有該區域部分海域及海島的主權,並逕行訂立出九段線的領土地界,此舉和多個東協國家的領土主張發生重疊,其中涉及石油、天然氣、捕魚和貿易等國家利益的爭奪,更引發美國等強大國際勢力介入其中,紛紛為實力較弱的聲索國提供基礎建設和軍力補給,藉此對抗中國日益壯大的野心,也因此形成多次的軍事對峙和武裝衝突。
在研究中國策略背後形成的條件及原因時,本研究自南海眾多聲索國中,選擇與中國在領土爭議衝突最為嚴重的菲律賓及越南進行探討,從體系層次和單位層次的角度,對中菲、中越之間的各項檢驗指標進行調查,包含與美國的同盟情形、海、空軍實力比較、國際組織參與情況、兩國歷史關係、經濟關係、政府體制與意識形態及國內政治成本等因素。另外,由於中國的領土爭議並非只有南海海域,是以本研究藉由曾與中國發生領土爭議的印度和俄羅斯,分析中國在與他國的領土爭議中,針對各項爭議議題所採取的策略,如天然資源、貿易路線、戰略考量等,從中可窺知中國在南海爭議事件可能採取的策略。 最後,自上述的理論基礎,探討菲律賓和越南的兩個實例,觀察中國在南海策略的歷史演進、優劣勢、利益考量和權力投射,透過深入分析中國和兩國之間各項主張和軍事外交的攻防,來描繪出中國在軍事威嚇、拖延策略及協議解決階段的決策分水嶺,並推測其策略形成的驅動力及目標,進而思考中國未來策略的走向。 Amidst the brawl of Southeast Asian’s power game, the territory dispute of the South China Sea (SCS) has taken the center stage. In recent years, under the rule of president Xi Jinping, the China government continues to make waves in the disputed area by aggressive diplomatic and military actions, leaving the ambiguous sovereignty regarding this region to slip back into chaos. By combing through the history of the dispute, the study focuses on the strategies and policies analysis of China, the regional hegemony, especially around the sovereignty issue of the territorial sea. Based on history claim, China announced its sovereignty and drew the well-known “Nine-Dash Line” on the certain said area. This action had a major conflict of interest with other ASEAN countries, involving the rights of oil, natural gas, fishing and business trade. Also, the unbalanced situation brought the eyes of many traditional power states, U.S. included, and to counter China’s aggression, many of them have been proving military supplies and building infrastructure for the weaker within the region, which resulted in multiple military confrontations and armed clashes throughout the years. While researching the reasons behind China’s strategies, the study chooses Philippines and Vietnam as the regional representatives to further dissect the situation from system level and state level, including the alliance with the U.S., Military comparison, the involvement of international organization, mutual history entanglement, the economics, forms of governments & ideology, and domestic political cost. Furthermore, the SCS is not the only disputed area on the agenda of China’s expansion; on that note, by taking a close look at the past experience with India and Russia, the study is able to surmise China’s logic in certain particular factors, such as natural resources, trade routes and strategic consideration, etc, and to formulate a possible prediction regarding China’s strategy in the SCS. In conclusion, as the study used the aforementioned theories to apply Philippines’ and Vietnam’s encounter with China, the variables of progress timeline, the strength and the weakness, respective interests and power projection have all be taken into account, and helped to see a bigger picture of China’s real intention which is well-camouflaged under the apparent military coercion, delaying strategy or negotiation. Once the study deduced the underlying drives and purposes of these strategies, it would significantly increase the credibility on the prediction of China’s future strategy. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/21171 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201904173 |
全文授權: | 未授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 政治學系 |
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