台灣地方政府支出之研究：民國88年度至102年度

Abstract

本研究蒐集我國地方政府民國88年度至102年度的追蹤資料，以實證統計分析的方式，觀察影響我國地方政府支出配置的因素。 本研究結果發現，在政治因素中，總歲出與經常支出呈現漸進預算趨勢；第二，選舉年對地方政府總歲出與資本支出呈現顯著的正向因果關係；第三，分立的府會關係或府際關係對地方財政支出未有顯著影響；而在財政經濟因素中，失業率與地方政府支出呈現顯著的正向因果關係，呼應了凱因斯理論的假設；第二，財政壓力對地方政府支出呈現顯著結果，顯示地方政府在面臨財政壓力時，會採取微幅刪減支出的策略；最後，自籌財源與地方政府支出之間未達統計上的顯著水準。

This thesis collects panel data for all the local governments in Taiwan from 1999 to 2013. It uses the empretical research to observe the factors which affect the allocation of local government expenditures in Taiwan.In the thesis, the results suggested that the total expenditures and current expenditures tend to follow the incremental budget trend in the political factors. Second, elections have a significant positive effect on total expenditures and capital expenditures of local government. Third, both vertical divided government and horizontal divided government do not have significant result. However, in the fiscal economics factors, unemployment rate has a significant positive relation on local government expenditures which verifies the hypothesis of Keyesian Theory. Second, financial pressure has a significant effect on local government expenditures which means local government will take action to cut the spemding slightly when facing financial pressure. Finally, there is no significant result between self-financing resourses and local government expenditures.