2014年日本眾議院選舉-核能對自民黨得票影響之空間分析

Abstract

本研究探討核能議題、政策對於日本眾議院選舉的影響，經由核電廠數目與自民黨2014年得票率的相關係數分析後可以發現兩者具有一定的相關性，因此本研究以1896個基礎自治團體為研究單位，利用傳統迴歸分析、空間分析、獨立樣本T檢定來證明核電廠區、核災區與2014年得票率之間的關係。此外，自民黨在2014年大選前八個月大幅度的轉變其核能政策，本研究亦探討政策轉變與得票變化率之關係。 研究結果指出，自民黨2014年得票率受核電廠區與核災區的影響，距離核電廠越近，對於自民黨得票率為正向影響，距離核災區越近，對於自民黨得票率為負向影響，且核災區不支持自民黨源於福島核災，而非本身的政治版塊即是如此。另一方面，核能政策的轉變對於2014年得票變化率無任何顯著的影響，有可能是傳統的人口因素仍對於日本的選舉佔大部分的因素。

This study explores the effects of nuclear energy issues and policies on the election of the House of Representatives in Japan. The analysis found the relationship between the number of nuclear power plants and the voting rate of the Liberal Democratic Party in 2014. The analysis unit in this research is based on 1896 villiages, using the traditional regression analysis, spatial analysis, independent sample T test to prove the relationship between the nuclear power plant, the nuclear disaster area and the 2014 election. In addition, the Liberal Democratic Party changed its nuclear energy policy before the election. This study also explores the relationship between the Liberal Democratic Party’s turn on its nuclear policy and its vote-obtaining percentage in the following elections. The results of the study pointed out how the vote-obtaining rate of Liberal Democratic Party in 2014 is related to nuclear power plant sites and nuclear disaster areas. The closer the constituency is to the nuclear power plants, the more evident the impact turns out to be positive on the Liberal Democratic Party’s vote-obtaining rates. The closer the constituency is to the nuclear disaster areas, the more negative the impact is on the Liberal Democratic Party’s vote-obtaining rates. The nuclear disaster areas do not support the Liberal Democratic Party due to the outbreak of Fukushima nuclear disaster, rather than its own political section. On the other hand, the shift in nuclear energy policy has no effect on the vote-obtaining rates in 2014, and it is likely that the traditional demographic factors still, to the largest extent, accounts for Japan's elections.