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標題: | 機器人理財對資產管理的衝擊與商業模式研究 The Impact of Robo Advisory on the Asset Management Industry and Business Process |
作者: | Wei-Hsin Sun 孫維欣 |
指導教授: | 郭瑞祥 |
關鍵字: | 金融科技,人工智慧,財富管理,資產管理,機器人理財, Fintech,Artificial Intelligence,Wealth Management,Asset Management,Robot Consultant, |
出版年 : | 2018 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 再見了,人類基金經理人?20171024據《彭博》新聞報導,華爾街推出的AI人工智慧ETF(AIEQ-US),是使用了IBM人工智慧Watson所選出的ETF,績效表現優越,輕鬆地贏過了標準普爾500指數大盤報酬率。如果人工智慧可以思考、學習,進而理財、選股,那麼未來,擁有超級運算能力的電腦,是不是有可能打敗巴菲特的投資績效,成為新一代股神。
自從谷歌的人工智慧系統AlphaGo打了圍棋勝仗,全世界都關心機器人還能做什麼?資產管理業者也動作頻頻,推出機器人理財顧問服務,用更精密的數學演算法,抓住瞬息萬變的金融投資市場,它會是下一個股神嗎? 根據顧問公司Opimas的研究,在接下來的幾年裡,跟商業有關的專業科系會越來越不受歡迎。研究表明未來10年內20萬個金融工作將被人工智慧奪走!機器人顧問會佔領未來的金融界嗎?AI也進軍了投資行業,很多金融分析師表示可以學習和思考的高級貿易機器會讓今天最難最複雜的投資算法看起來很簡單。機器人理財可以幫助公司評估交易,投資和策略,所用時間要比現在量化分析師使用傳統數據工具分析快很多。而在美國,根據牛津兩個學院的報告,47%的工作「很有風險」會在20年內被機器取代,而其中54%的工作是金融相關。 對這些精心編程的機器交易員期望過高也會導致全球的主要貿易中心出現混亂。市場上沒有一個算法可以結合多種不穩定變量,利用多維度經濟預測模型服務所有投資者。那麼當機器人做錯決定之後,怎麼才能保護投資者呢?根據美國證監會,機器人顧問需要和人類一樣進行登記,它們也要服從Investment Advisers Act的規則。但美國監管部門也表示機器人的決定和建議都是演算法算出的,而不是推理出來的,那麼機器人遵守規定是否實際?這個問題表明了一件事:完全取代人類是很難的,在機器人隨心所欲的時候,我們需要真人來監控和管理。 因此本論文主要探討(1)全球機器人理財顧問發展對資產管理業的衝擊(2)資產管理業如何動態調整(3)台灣資產管理業如何推廣機器人理財顧問的發展。 藉由整理公會、全球年會與趨勢論壇報告及分析個案A、B兩家領先公司的商業模式來輔助市場預測,進而提供台灣資產管理公司的策略發展,確認三個重要發現: 1. 領先的投信公司應該善用內部客戶資訊,聚焦客戶需求的痛點,打造友善介面的平台,效法華人市場中的老虎證券贏者全拿。 2. 重點不是機器人理財的科技,而是那些公司具有推廣教育機器人理財的能力,只要願意投資機器人理財,領先公司最有能力重塑資產管理業的新營運模式,因為完整客層結構與成熟電子交易平台的優勢,已經搭建起進入者障礙。 3. 資產管理業目前還處於機器人理財是服務中小客層的策略定位,以及未達經濟規模,利潤考量下評估投資的階段,殊不知他已經是金融科技下不得不的投資策略,而且適合所有接受行動數位的客層服務。 Goodbye, human fund managers!? According to Bloomberg news 2017/10/24, an Artificial Intelligence ETF (AIEQ-US), managed by IBM’s Watson Artificial Intelligence program, which has performed well and easily beat S&P 500 index. If a super computer, equipped with artificial intelligence, can think and learn, and even can manage wealth, pick stocks, is it possible for robot to beat Buffett's investment performance to become a new generation of investment guru in the coming future? After Google's AlphaGo ran over the current world chess champion, people starts to thinking what else those robotics can do. Asset managers are the leading movers of this topic by introducing advance robot financial advisory services. Those robots are trying to seize investment opportunities of the rapidly changing financial markets by sophisticated mathematical algorithms. Will robot becomes the new investment guru? According to Opimas, a consulting firm, in the coming years, business and financial professionals are facing less demand. The research shows that 200,000 financial jobs will be replaced by artificial intelligence in the next 10 years! Robot investment consultant will take over the financial sector? In fact, machines has already step into the investment industry and many financial analysts believe that an advanced trading mechanism which can learn and think could easily make the most complicated investment algorithms seem simple. Robots also can help companies evaluate deals, investments and business strategies in a much efficient way, comparing to a quantitative analysts who implement traditional data tools. Only in US, 47% of jobs are 'very risky' to be replaced by machines in 20 years, of which 54% are financially related, according to a reports from Oxford colleagues. However, having too high expectation of those carefully programmed machines might lead to chaos. Till now, for investment purpose, there is no such algorithm could successfully combine multiple unstable financial variables and multi-dimensional economic forecasting models. So when machines make wrong decisions, how we protect investors? US SEC says robotic consultants need to be registered and they also obey the rules of the Investment Advisers Act. However, SEC recognizes that asking robot consultants to follow rules might be unrealistic as their decisions and recommendations are derived by algorithms, unlike human consultants use logical deductions. This issue shows one clear thing: it is very difficult to completely replace human beings while making investment decisions. We need real people to monitor and manage robots. This thesis focuses on discussing (1) The Impact of Robo Advisor on Asset Management Industry (2) How Asset Managers to Adjust Business Model to React Challenges (3) How Taiwan Asset Managers to Promote and Develop Robo Advisor Services. This thesis concludes three key findings for the strategic development of Taiwan asset management industry. Main research was through industrial association reports, forum discussions and two case studying of Taiwan leading asset managers. 1. Leading asset managers should leverage internal customer information to improve customer satisfaction, to create a user-friendly interface platform and then to gain market share, like the Tiger Securities. 2. Technology is not the key, but those companies who are willing and capable to promote robo advisor services. As long as those leading companies are willing to invest in robot wealth management, they are building entry barriers via well-established customer structure and trading platform and then they are reshaping business model of asset management industry. 3. Currently Taiwan asset management industry is remain at the early stage of robo advisor service development. Mid to small customers are the target client tiers and has not reached economic scales yet. However, I believe investing more resources into robo advisor service is not a nice to have but a must have status nowadays and this service model serve all customers who accept digital tools. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/20259 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201800185 |
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顯示於系所單位: | 商學組 |
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