進入大陸光罩產業策略與風險評估: 以P公司個案研究

Abstract

黃光模組是半導體晶圓製造的第一關，光罩製作則是黃光模組曝光的第一關，所以光罩產業是半導體產業的最上游，和IC製造業和IC設計產業有很大的關係。但是光罩產業的稼動率很低。所以任何的產能擴張的舉動，都會是一個很大的風險，本論文則在以風險管理角度的觀點，來探討這個產業的風險管理，嘗試以COSO ERM模型來分析這個策略的風險並給予管理者參考指標。 綜合以上所述，本研究的主要目的如下： 1. 光罩產業在面對多變的半導體環境可能面臨的風險。 2. 提供高階管理者進入大陸光罩產業各種風險評估。 3. 利用風險地圖的作法，來評估單打獨鬥和策略夥伴的優劣點，提供高階管理者決策參考。 經由收集整理各種相關的文獻，以及資料，本研究的主要成果如下： 1. 整理出光罩產業在面對多變的半導體產業環境中，可能會面臨的風險，都加以整理探討。 2. 對於各種可能面臨的風險，本研究提出可能的風險評估和策略。 3. 利用風險地圖，整理出單打獨鬥和策略夥伴的優缺點，並且以定性定量的方式，做出比較，可以發現光罩產業進軍大陸，在風險忍受度極低的情況之下，除了一些風險評估做法之外，主要必須以風險分攤的方式，把風險降到最低，才是最正確的選擇。 本研究結果也發現，許多風險類型都是有相互之間的交互作用，所以採取的因應方式也是一個複合的對應方式。所以以管理者的角度來看，5種風險因應的策略，如避免、減少、替代行動、分享或保險、接受的方式等，PHOTOTRONICS(P公司)選擇轉移或分享風險的方式，和另外一家公司，合作開拓大陸的市場，計劃創造雙贏的局面。所以當經營者面對複雜的風險環境的時候，就可以依照本研究的風險分析、風險因應、風險地圖、和對應策略方式來決定本身的方向和定位做法，使公司得以在風險較低的情況下，為公司保有最大的利益。

Litho module is the 1st bottle-neck of wafer fabrication and mask is the 1st bottle-neck of litho module for cycle time. Therefore, the mask-making is strongly related with the IC fabrication and IC design field. However, mask fab always has the low utilization rate characteristics. Any capacity expansion will deeply impact revenue of the mask company and cause large operation risk. The thesis is under the view of risk management to evaluate the risks of P company entering China mask field and its strategy. The COSO ERM framework will be used to study the risk of the strategy and could give the suggestions to higher managers. With the above statements, the objective of the study is as follows. 1. The potential risks will meet under the dynamic environment of mask field. 2. The study could give the analysisi to the kinds of risks and risk evaluation. 3. Using risk map to compare and analyze the Pros/Cons of wholly owned with join venture for China mask fab. After studying many literatures and information, the suggestions could be delivered as follows. 1. The potential risks have been all listed and analyzed under the dynamic mask field environment. 2. The study also provided the risk evaluation and strategy when facing all kinds of risks. 3. Using risk map to analyze the Pros and Cons of wholly owned and join venture. Because the risk tolerance is very low for P company, the risk sharing strategy should be adopted and some risk response should also be taken to further reduce the risk level according to risk evaluation. The study also found the risks were interacted each other so the response should be a combined type. From the view of higher managers, 5 responses, avoid, reduce, alternative, risk sharing, or acceptance were needed to select one. P company finally choose risk sharing is a wise decision from the risk map analysis. So the methodology of this study could deliver the risk management when facing complicated environment and still keep the company operation in a good sharp.