公司被槓桿收購後再重新上市之機率

Abstract

過去曾有論文探討槓桿收購(LBO)是否會創造價值，Guo, Hotchkiss and Song (2011)在文中指出，在不同的槓桿收購出場方式中，透過公開上市(IPO)的報酬率是最高的。並再探討價值創造的原因，發現以會計指標衡量的營運表現成長是報酬率很重要的一個來源。本文蒐集了從1990年1月到2014年6月間被槓桿收購並下市的公司資料，並提出了用機率模型來預測公司被槓桿收購下市後，未來再重新上市的機率，實證結果顯示，此模型所預測的機率，平均而言比用樣本資料簡單的相對次數估計機率來的高出許多。顯示出本文中所選擇的模型變數整體上是具有解釋力以及可靠性。

Several papers study on the topic of whether Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs) would create value. Guo, Hotchkiss and Song (2011) shows that within all possible outcomes of an LBO, a subsequent IPO seems to have the highest returns. They further investigate the relative importance of the three potential contributors of returns. Their study indicates that improvements in operating performance measured by accounting items play an important role in generating returns. In this paper, I collect data for companies announced to go private through LBO between January 1990 and June 2014. Logit regression is applied for modeling the probability, the results suggest that the estimated probability of a subsequent IPO, on average, is much higher than the simple estimator, calculated as dividing number of companies with a subsequent IPO in the sample by sample size. Overall, I believe the results indicate that the model specification in this paper is reliable.