農業產值、農業所得與農地使用效果之探討：以台灣為例之三篇論文集

Abstract

本文主要以農業產值、農業收入與農地使用為研究主軸，在農業產值與農業收入部分，為了解臺灣加入WTO後國內整體農業所受之衝擊與影響程度，本文採用近期所發展之追蹤資料政策評估方法(panel data policy evaluation approach)，以事後實證分析(ex post counterfactual analysis)的方式，模擬於2002年至2011年間國內農業環境與政策因WTO而有所調整與改變之情況下，未受政策變動影響之反事實(counterfactuals)農業產值與收入之經濟數據，並與實際已發生之經濟結果相比較，進而設算出因子處置效果(Treatment Effect, TE)後，接續以時間序列模型進行統計顯著性與確實性檢測(robustness check)，並評估加入WTO對農業影響程度隨時間變化的情形。研究結果顯示，國內農業整體產值所受之衝擊未如多數事前分析所評估之預期，而農業收入相比於研究中所設算之走向則有顯著下滑的趨勢。 在農地利用部分，因受近年臺灣經濟與產業發展之影響，國內農業用地違規使用與轉用之情形越趨嚴重。本文主要量化及探討使用分區實際管制效果與其管理制度。為評估使用分區對於國內農業用地保護之影響效果，文中運用地理資訊系統(GIS)結合資料庫分析(MIS)與計量評估方法，處理空間資料(spatial data)與數據資料並將其結合為巨量資料庫(big data)進行後續分析。文中採用隨機效果(random effects)之追蹤資料迴歸模型(panel regression)加以評估。研究結果顯示，使用分區對國內整體農地利用確實存在相關影響，以一般農業區為例，若該村里之農地位於一般農業區相較於非一般農業區而言，將呈現顯著降低農業用地面積之效果，同時本文發現市場交易資訊亦是造成農地利用(移轉)之重要影響因子。如未來研究能取得較詳細之地籍資訊(如地目類別)，將能透過本研究方法，針對農業發展條例中相關定義(如耕地)，更加深入探討並提供各式相關政策與管制建議。

In recent decades, the agricultural sector in Taiwan has confronted increased pressure not only from the rapid economic development and the liberalization of global trade system, but also from the concerning over farmland conservation and the challenge of arable land loss. In response to these potential drivers of adverse agricultural economic trends, the government has taken heed of the preoccupation and tries to enact policies to assist the development of domestic agriculture, accelerate structural adjustments to the farming sector, support and maintain farmers’ income and conserve the resource of agricultural land. However, despite political commitments to these policies, there is currently little ex post empirical evidence regarding the actual economic influences and effectiveness of these policies. In essence, after the accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) since 2002, Taiwan has vigorously contacted its trade partners to seek possible form of the economic closer partnership, such as the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). It is expected that the expanded market access will bring more impacts on the agriculture in Taiwan. As a result, we try to contribute some insights and further policy implications in the agricultural perspectives. In the first two essays, we adopted the recently developed panel data approach for policy evaluation to construct the annual agricultural growth path of Taiwan, which is mainly based on the cross-sectional correlations between the domestic and international agricultural trade markets in the absence of Taiwan’s entry into the WTO. Our results have not only revealed the importance of ex post counterfactual analysis, but also provided empirical evidence for the agricultural economic shocks. Furthermore, in the third essay, this paper adds to current knowledge by assessing the effect of different kinds of agricultural zoning based on the Regional Plan Act which was enacted in 1974 and amended in 2000 in Taiwan and using big data in combination with datasets from a management information system (MIS) and geographic information system (GIS). With the software of GIS and the structural query language (SQL), we extracted analytic data from map profiles along with data from a social economic dataset. We applied a random effects panel regression model as an illustration to test the impacts of zoning and other social factors on farmland at a village level, for example, the population density and dependency ratio of the elderly population. From the policy perspective, our results demonstrate that the current design and pattern of agricultural zoning may not achieve the policy targets to preserve farmland.