人民幣匯率波動對中國大陸進出口貿易之影響

Abstract

人民幣的匯率問題一直是國際經濟學領域的熱點，其與中國對外貿易的關聯緊密。本文以2000年1月至2015年12月的資料為樣本，構建了以中國進出口貿易總量為被解釋變數，人民幣匯率、國民收入等數據為解釋變數的計量模型，分析探討這些變數之間的關係。研究結果顯示，在該時間段內，人民幣匯率升值會使得中國進口量與出口量發生不同程度的下降。與此同時，匯率以外，其他因素對進出口貿易量亦有重要影響，這包括GDP、外商投資、匯率波動率、金融風暴以及是否加入WTO等。 此後，本文選取了東南亞地區具有代表性的五個國家：印尼、馬來西亞、新加坡、台灣以及泰國，構建同一時間段內中國與這五國雙邊貿易量的的面板資料模型。通過固定效應模型得出的結論與前述進出口總量基本一致。 綜上，根據本文的實證結論，人民幣的升值短期不利於中國的淨出口貿易，對中國扭轉巨額貿易順差作用有限，但長期而言有助於中國在經濟結構上做出改革，促進總體經濟的健康運行。政府部門應當在人民幣匯率市場化的過程中就制度變化的幅度和速度做出權衡取捨，以保證向更高水準總體經濟結構轉型的平穩過度。

In the field of International Economics, the exchange rate of RMB has been a focus. What’s more, there is close connection between the exchange rate and the foreign trade of China. As a result, in this thesis we use econometric models to analyze the relationship between the import(or export) and some explaining variables, which include the exchange rate of RMB, the GDP, the volatility of exchange rate, FDI and some dummy variables such as WTO and financial crisis. The statistics in this model is based on a monthly sample between Jan 2000 and Dec 2015. As a result, both of the export and import would decrease when the exchange rate of RMB appreciates. Also, the other variables have significant effects on foreign trade of China. Then a panel data model based on the statistics of five countries in Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is established. The result of the panel data model agrees with that of the model above. According to the empirical result of this thesis, the appreciation of RMB would have adversary impact on Chinese net export in the short run. However, the Chinese government would adjust the economic structure under the pressure of the appreciation of RMB in the long run, which does good to the sustained and sound development of Chines economy. In this process, the government should trade off the speed of the market-oriented reform of exchange rate to ensure the smooth transition of the economic transformation.