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標題: | 以台灣資料推估中國未來老年化醫療支出 The Future Healthcare Expenditure of China’s Aging Population: Base on Taiwan Data |
作者: | Yu-Hsuan Chen 陳兪璇 |
指導教授: | 羅竹平(Chu-Ping Lo) |
關鍵字: | 人口老年化,國內生產毛額,醫療健保支出,一胎化政策, aging populatio,gross domestic product,national health expenditure,one-child policy, |
出版年 : | 2016 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 近年來由於醫療技術的進步,使人們的壽命得以延長,人口結構因而快速老化,老年化人口結構會對國家的財政、經濟、社會制度與衛生等產生重大的影響。中國佔全世界人口數的五分之一,對於世界的影響日益加深,人口老化議題相比已開發國家雖起步晚、但速度快。本文以人口老年化對醫療支出的影響為主軸,因中國統計資料不完整故採用台灣醫療資料結構預估中國,將台灣未來老年化醫療發展趨勢套用至中國,並討論推估結果代表的意義。
研究推估顯示,中國醫療支出將會隨時間而增長,其結果與人口老化的趨勢一致,總醫療費用由2015年的3.94兆人民幣,成長到2050年的59.74兆人民幣,成長約十五倍,而老年人口的醫療費用支出由2015年的1.02兆人民幣到2050年成長為30.35兆人民幣,卻成長了三十多倍,此結論與台灣醫療費用趨勢相同,醫療費用的快速成長原因來自於大量的老年人口增加。就醫療費用支出佔國內生產毛額(Gross Domestic Product ,簡稱GDP)的比例發現,中國比重由2015年的5.86%,成長到2050年的11.53%,而醫療支出的上升必對國家與社會的財政造成重大影響;另外,中國由於先前的一胎化政策加速高齡化人口結構的發展,故中國必須建立可持續性的醫療健保制度,以達成中長期收支平衡目標。 Recently, because of advancing in medical technology, longevity of people has been increasing. As a result, population structure also ages fast. Aging population has a great impact on the country's financial, economic, sanitation, and social systems. China’s population accounts for one-fifth of the world, and affects the world more than ever. Although China’s aging issue happened less than 10 years, it almost catches up with developed countries. This paper focuses on the impact that aging population brings to health-care expenditure. Because China’s data is not complete, we use Taiwan’s data to estimate. We apply Taiwan’s estimation result to China’s future health-care expenditure, and we discuss what it means in the society. The results show that China's medical costs will grow over time, consistent with the growing of its aging population. Total medical expenses grow from 3.94 trillion RMB in 2015 to 59.74 trillion RMB in 2050, increasing by more than 15 times. However, surprisingly, the medical expenses of elderly population increase by more than 30 times, growing from 1.02 trillion RMB in 2015 to 30.35 trillion RMB in 2050. This result is similar to Taiwan’s estimated medical expenses. The percentage of China’s national health expenses accounts for 5.86% in 2015 and will grow to 11.53% in 2050 of GDP. The increasing of health spending will definitely affect a country’s finance. In addition, China’s one-child policy accelerates aging problem, so China has to establish a sustainable health-care insurance system in order to make ends meet in long term. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/19388 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201600573 |
全文授權: | 未授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 農業經濟學系 |
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