請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件：
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/19372完整後設資料紀錄
| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 邱顯比 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Min-Ren Wu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 吳旻荏 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T01:55:55Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2016-09-13 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2016 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2016-07-06 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Bailey, W., Li, H., Mao, C. X., & Zhong, R. (2003). Regulation fair disclosure and earnings information: Market, analyst, and corporate responses. The Journal of Finance, 58(6), 2487-2514.
Ball, R., & Brown, P. (1968). An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers. Journal of accounting research, 159-178. Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (1999). The courage of misguided convictions. Financial Analysts Journal, 55(6), 41-55. Barberis, N., & Huang, M. (2001). Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 56(4), 1247-1292. Beaver (1998) W Beaver Financial reporting: an accounting revolution (3rd Edition), Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ (1998) Beaver, W., Lambert, R., & Morse, D. (1980). The information content of security prices. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2(1), 3-28. Beaver, W. H. (1968). The information content of annual earnings announcements. Journal of accounting research, 67-92. Beaver, W. H., Clarke, R., & Wright, W. F. (1979). The association between unsystematic security returns and the magnitude of earnings forecast errors. Journal of accounting research, 316-340. Bernard, V. L., & Thomas, J. K. (1989). Post-earnings-announcement drift: delayed price response or risk premium? Journal of accounting research, 1-36. Bernard, V. L., & Thomas, J. K. (1990). Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 13(4), 305-340. Bhushan, R. (1989). Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 11(2), 255-274. Bradshaw, M. T., & Sloan, R. G. (2002). GAAP versus the street: An empirical assessment of two alternative definitions of earnings. Journal of accounting research, 40(1), 41-66. Brown, L. D. (1997). Analyst forecasting errors: Additional evidence. Financial Analysts Journal, 53(6), 81-88. Brown, L. D., Hagerman, R. L., Griffin, P. A., & Zmijewski, M. E. (1987). An evaluation of alternative proxies for the market's assessment of unexpected earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 9(2), 159-193. Chan, L. K., Karceski, J., & Lakonishok, J. (2007). Analysts' conflicts of interest and biases in earnings forecasts. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 42(04), 893-913. Cheng, Y., Liu, M. H., & Qian, J. (2006). Buy-side analysts, sell-side analysts, and investment decisions of money managers. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 41(01), 51-83. Clement, M. B., & Tse, S. Y. (2003). Do investors respond to analysts' forecast revisions as if forecast accuracy is all that matters? The Accounting Review, 78(1), 227-249. Cowen, A., Groysberg, B., & Healy, P. (2006). Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 41(1), 119-146. Das, S., Levine, C. B., & Sivaramakrishnan, K. (1998). Earnings predictability and bias in analysts' earnings forecasts. Accounting Review, 277-294. Dechow, P. M. (1994). Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance: The role of accounting accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 18(1), 3-42. Dechow, P. M., & Dichev, I. D. (2002). The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of accrual estimation errors. The Accounting Review, 77(s-1), 35-59. Dechow, P. M., Hutton, A. P., & Sloan, R. G. (2000). The Relation between Analysts' Forecasts of Long‐Term Earnings Growth and Stock Price Performance Following Equity Offerings*. Contemporary Accounting Research, 17(1), 1-32. Dechow, P. M., Sabino, J. S., & Sloan, R. G. (1997). Implications of nondiscretionary accruals for earnings management and market-based research. Available at SSRN 10606. Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., & Sweeney, A. P. (1995). Detecting earnings management. Accounting Review, 193-225. Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., & Sweeney, A. P. (1996). Causes and consequences of earnings manipulation: An analysis of firms subject to enforcement actions by the sec*. Contemporary Accounting Research, 13(1), 1-36. DeFond, M. L., & Jiambalvo, J. (1994). Debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 17(1), 145-176. Dugar, A., & Nathan, S. (1995). The effect of investment banking relationships on financial analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations*. Contemporary Accounting Research, 12(1), 131-160. Easton, P. D., & Harris, T. S. (1991). Earnings as an explanatory variable for returns. Journal of accounting research, 19-36. Fama, E. F. (1998). Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance. Journal of financial economics, 49(3), 283-306. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross‐section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of financial economics, 33(1), 3-56. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1995). Size and book‐to‐market factors in earnings and returns. The Journal of Finance, 50(1), 131-155. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1996). Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies. The Journal of Finance, 51(1), 55-84. Francis, J., & Philbrick, D. (1993). Analysts' decisions as products of a multi-task environment. Journal of accounting research, 216-230. Gilson, S. C., Healy, P. M., Noe, C. F., & Palepu, K. G. (2001). Analyst specialization and conglomerate stock breakups. Journal of accounting research, 39(3), 565-582. Gu, Z., & Wu, J. S. (2003). Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 35(1), 5-29. Gleason, C. A., & Lee, C. M. (2003). Analyst forecast revisions and market price discovery. The Accounting Review, 78(1), 193-225. Hayes, S. C., Gifford, E. V., & Hayes, G. J. (1998). Moral behavior and the development of verbal regulation. The Behavior Analyst, 21(2), 253. Hilary, G., & Hsu, C. (2013). Analyst Forecast Consistency. The Journal of Finance, 68(1), 271-297. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01800.x Hong, H., & Kubik, J. D. (2003). Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts. The Journal of Finance, 58(1), 313-351. doi:10.1111/1540-6261.00526 Hong, H., Kubik, J. D., & Solomon, A. (2000). Security analysts' career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts. The Rand journal of economics, 121-144. Hope, O. K. (2003). Disclosure practices, enforcement of accounting standards, and analysts' forecast accuracy: An international study. Journal of accounting research, 41(2), 235-272. Jackson, A. R. (2005). Trade generation, reputation, and sell‐side analysts. The Journal of Finance, 60(2), 673-717. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 263-291. Kim, O., Lim, S. C., & Shaw, K. W. (2001). The inefficiency of the mean analyst forecast as a summary forecast of earnings. Journal of accounting research, 39(2), 329-335. Kormendi, R., & Lipe, R. (1987). Earnings innovations, earnings persistence, and stock returns. Journal of business, 323-345. Kothari, S. (2001). Capital markets research in accounting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 31(1), 105-231. Lang, M. H., & Lundholm, R. J. (1996). Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. Accounting Review, 467-492. Lev, B. (1989). On the usefulness of earnings and earnings research: Lessons and directions from two decades of empirical research. Journal of accounting research, 153-192. Liang, L., & Riedl, E. J. (2013). The effect of fair value versus historical cost reporting model on analyst forecast accuracy. The Accounting Review, 89(3), 1151-1177. Libby, R., Hunton, J. E., TAN, H. T., & Seybert, N. (2008). Retracted: Relationship Incentives and the Optimistic/Pessimistic Pattern in Analysts' Forecasts. Journal of accounting research, 46(1), 173-198. Malkiel, B. G., & Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. Mahoney, W. (1991). Investor Relations: The Professional's Guide to Financial Marketing and Communications. New York, NY: New York Institute of Finance McNichols, M., & O'Brien, P. C. (1997). Self-selection and analyst coverage. Journal of accounting research, 35, 167-199. Sedor, L. M. (2002). An explanation for unintentional optimism in analysts' earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review, 77(4), 731-753. Shefrin, H., & Statman, M. (2000). Behavioral portfolio theory. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 35(02), 127-151. Shen, C.-H., & Chih, H.-L. (2009). Conflicts of interest in the stock recommendations of investment banks and their determinants. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 44(05), 1149-1171. Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1997). The limits of arbitrage. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 35-55. Sloan, R. (1996). Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash flows about future earnings?(Digest summary). Accounting Review, 71(3), 289-315. Stickel, S. E.. (1992). Reputation and Performance Among Security Analysts. The Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1811–1836. Teoh, S. H., & Wong, T. J. (2002). Why new issues and high-accrual firms underperform: The role of analysts’ credulity. Review of Financial Studies, 15(3), 869-900. Thaler, R. H., & Johnson, E. J. (1990). Gambling with the house money and trying to break even: The effects of prior outcomes on risky choice. Management science, 36(6), 643-660. Xie, H. (2001). The mispricing of abnormal accruals. The Accounting Review, 76(3), 357-373. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/19372 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本研究搜集台灣五十指數公司之股票價格預測與盈餘預測，時間從2009年至2015年9月，本研究主要檢視股股票價格預測與盈餘預測的精確性及波動性，是否具有資訊性，是否會影響投資人的投資決策，實證結果顯示：(1)價格預測準確性具有資訊性，投資人若參考其預測精準性，短期內可能獲得累積超額報酬，而盈餘預測不具有任何資訊性。 (2)價格波動具有資訊性且波動的一致性也會影響投資人的決策，若分析師預測能維持一致性，則投資人參考其預測較有機會獲得累積超額報酬；反之，則可能會使得投資人做出不適宜的投資決策。 (3)價格預測具有預測價值。投資人若於期初依賴分析師價格預測進行操作，投資人於期末有可能獲得累積超額報酬，其中看多較看空容易取得超額報酬。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | This study collected the price forecasts and earnings forecast based on Taiwan 50 from 2009 to 2015. By researching on the accuracy and volatility of stock prices and earnings forecast, we would like to know whether they are informational or affect the investor's investment decision. The result show that (1) the accuracy of price forecast is informative, while the earnings forecast is not. Investors would obtain cumulative abnormal return in the short term if they referred the accuracy of price forecast. (2) Price volatility is also informative and the volatility consistency will affect the investor's decision. If analyst forecasts can maintain their consistency, investors who referred it are likely to obtain the cumulative abnormal returns. Or it may guide investors to make an inappropriate decision. (3) Price forecast is valuable. Investors might obtain the cumulative abnormal returns at the end of period if they follow the price forecast announced at the beginning of period. And investors who follow bullish forecast could obtain more cumulative abnormal returns than investors referring bearish views. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T01:55:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-105-R00723005-1.pdf: 3463971 bytes, checksum: d51885c7305fe03489e5595cbc8c57fd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 誌謝 ……………………………………………………………………………… i
中文摘要……………………………………………………………………………. ii 英文摘要…………………………………………………………………………… .iii 第一章 前言 ………………………………………………………………………1 第二章 文獻回顧 …………………………………………………………………4 第三章 假說發展 ………………………………………………………………...15 第四章 研究設計與實證結果 …………………………………………………...18 第五章 結論 ……………………………………………………………………...26 附錄 ………………………………………………………………………………...28 參考文獻 …………………………………………………………………………...37 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.title | 分析師預測一致性–盈餘預測與價格預測之比較 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Analyst Forecast Consistency–Comparing Earning Forecast with Price Forecast | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 104-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 陳明賢,陳彥行 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 股票,盈餘,一致性,波動性,資訊性, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | stock,earning,informative,volatility and consistency, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 45 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201600730 | |
| dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2016-07-07 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 管理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 財務金融學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 財務金融學系 | |
文件中的檔案：
| 檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ntu-105-1.pdf 未授權公開取用 | 3.38 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件，除了特別指名其著作權條款之外，均受到著作權保護，並且保留所有的權利。