透析臺灣科技證劵分析行業的低效表現及解決方案

Abstract

這篇論文首先介紹賣方證劵分析師的工作範圍，再以臺灣證劵市場中的科技類股票為主軸，進一步敘述臺灣科技證劵分析行業的現況，和在其中的分析師們如何取得市場認可的過程。為了做為對比，論文中也會將其它證劵市場的科技類股票，以及與其相關的數據和案例納入討論範圍。 在完成背景描述後，此篇論文旨在讓讀者清楚瞭解到，造成台灣科技證劵分析行業低效的弊端，和造成這些弊端的原因，再進而提出建議，寄望政府，學校和業界一起通力合作，假以年月，慢慢解決存在這個行業的結構和制度中，各個層面的問題。但是，往往最棘手的弊端，其根本原因還是在人性的弱點上，而這些人性的弱點不免牽扯到一個社會的文明水準和道德高度，也就是一個社會的進化程度；而從這個角度來看，落實證劵法規與落實交通法規是沒兩樣的，改善證劵市場交易秩序和改善交通秩序也是沒兩樣，都要先改變這個社會人群的平均素質。 此外，或許我們可以寄望於大環境中的一些條件改變，從而幫助扭轉證劵分析行業目前的劣質化，譬如說交易量的成長，分析師的供需平衡，和分析師報酬制度的改革。不過，諸如此類的條件改變需要很長的時間，也有很多不確定因素，而在那之前，市場上還是會充斥著濫竽充數的分析師，而機構投資人又不得不仰仗分析師們的協助，來完成投資決策。所幸，山不轉，路轉；路不轉，人可以轉。論文的後段提出因應現況的方法，以助投資人篩選優秀的分析師，以增加投資成功的機會。 全球各地的證劵市場都有多寡輕重不一的弊端，但是根據筆者和世界各大證劵市場之從業人員互動的經驗，論文的中心思想具有一定的普適性。

This thesis begins with the introduction of the roles and responsibilities of sell-side equity research analysts. Using Taiwan’s technology securities as a vehicle, the thesis then illustrates the gross quality of sell-side equity research in Taiwan’s technology sector, and how those analysts earning their recognitions in the market. For comparing and contrasting, the thesis also juxtaposes those discussed Taiwan technology securities with the relevant counterparts from other equity markets. After forming an impression of the background, the thesis dives into the exploration of the underlying issues that have caused the low efficiency of Taiwan’s technology equity research, and offers explanation of how these issues have evolved. Then, improvement plan is offered in the thesis to address these issues. To substantiate this improvement plan, Taiwan’s government, universities, and equity research firms must collaborate to gradually resolve the stated structural and regulatory problems over time. Nevertheless, often the roots of these problems sprout from weakness in humanity, and the advancement of humanity is collectively hinging on social development, which ultimately sets people’s moral standards and governs people’s conducts. There are other macroscopic changes that may also help to facilitate the betterment of equity research’s future, such as trading volume growth driven by the emerging markets, supply-and-demand balance in the job market of equity research, and reform of compensation scheme for analysts; however, these macroscopic changes may take years, and may be subjected to a lot of uncertainties. Meanwhile, institutional investors still have to risk falling victim of many unfit analysts. While the status quo may not change anytime too soon, institutional investors may resort to their own endeavors to screen for top-notch analysts using the evaluation methodology offered in the thesis, in order to maximize their returns. Various equity markets around the world largely share the problems discussed in this thesis, though the degree of seriousness may vary from one equity market to another. From the author’s personal experience in interacting with many global professionals, on both sell-side and buy-side, the central theme of this thesis is very much applicable on the global stage.