明日之星？ 台灣生技醫療產業—專利扮演的角色

Abstract

生技醫療相關產業是繼電子科技產業為政府所大力推動的下一個優勢產業，生技醫療類股指數於2007年7月開始。本研究首先針對台灣生技醫療指數過去8年期 （2007年Q3 至2014年Q2）追蹤資料，分析其與美國那達斯克生技股指數的趨勢相關性，及其與同期電子業類股之總市值相對於台灣大盤加權指數的走勢。 結果顯示台灣與美國的上市櫃生技醫療類股指數走勢呈高度正相關(R = 0.838)，且市值比的增幅比電子業類股大。本研究首次收集過去8年期之生技醫療指數成分股的82家公司的追蹤資料、進行迴歸分析、提出實證，以篩選可解釋股價報酬表現的最適模型與正相關因子。 本文的重要發現是（1）上期有新專利、且新增專利數為1時的公司與本期超額報酬率有正相關；（2）隨機效果模型比固定效果模型較具有效率性；（3）上一期有新專利且新專利數為1個時，對於上市公司之超額報酬率有顯著的正相關，對上櫃公司則為負；又（4）本期若已有新專利下, 額外增的新專利數不影響下一期的股票報酬。

This study investigates the stock performance of 72 firms listed in TSEC biotechnology and medical index (TBMI) during the period from 2007Q3 to 2014Q2. The main objective of the empirical analysis is to investigate whether firms with new patents outperformed those firms without new patents. The impact of new patents on performance is assayed with stock return rate, whether a new patent issued in previous quarter in a firm, the three-factor Fama-French asset pricing model as well as panel-data-regressions. In the regression analysis we also include a dummy variable for arresting the time effect on the fluctuating stock market and a patent variable, new patent number in the present quarter. The empirical evidence suggests that (1) The firm with new patents in previous quarter and the patent number being only one have a positive impact on the stock return (%) of listed firms, (2) but negative impact on the OTC firms; that (3) increase of new patents has no positive impact on the next quarter in both Listed and OTC firms, and (4) that if there is a newly issued patent in this quarter, additional new patent will not affect the stock return of the next quarter.