消費地氣候因子對水果拍賣價格之影響-以鳳梨、蓮霧、芒果及西瓜四種水果為例

Abstract

農產品的供需彈性較低，若供給或需求其中一方的變動都有可能造成價格的波動。本研究依據需求端可能受影響雨量及溫度因子，使用多元線性迴歸檢視因消費地氣候因子變動而影響的零售需求波動對批市場水果價格決價的影響。 農民是產品的提供者，但卻是價格的接受者，本研究透過芒果、鳳梨、蓮霧及西瓜四種水果進行研究分析結果。蓮霧因極不耐儲存特性，受零售市場的影響波動最顯著，芒果因其保存及受加工產品歡迎等因素，受影響較不顯著，鳳梨及西瓜因其相較其餘果品來得較耐儲運及果汁等加工比例較高等因素，受影響最不顯著。 期透過研究結果為完整零氣候因子對蔬果決價影響之相關研究盡棉薄力量，並提供特定果品運銷商及共同運銷團體提供者參考，並配合天氣預報，提早避開銷售當日受此天氣因子影響的消費地市場。

Because the elasticity of agricultural supply and demand is low, slightly changes of supply or demand side will cause moderest or large price fluctuations. In this study, the relationship of weather conditions on agricultural demand is focused. We use multiple linear regression model to examine how do the changes in consumer demand may lead to fluctuations in retail prices and how the effect may transfer into the wholesale market. Farmers are the product providers, but they are also price takers. In this research, we choose mango, pineapple, wax apple and watermelon as the four research subjects. Retail market volatility is affected significantly due to intolerant storage characteristics of wax apple. Mango is affected less significant by its preservation and processed products.. Compared to the rest of fruits, pineapple and watermelon which are more storage resistant, also are higher proportions to make fruit juice or other processed products, are not significant affected by retail-wholesale transfer effect. The results of this study can be useful for the government to stabilize the agricultural commodity prices in the retail and wholesale markets. In particular, this study has highlighted the importance of weather conditions on commodity prices. This information can combine the weather forecasting system to design a more effectivenss prevention system for natural disasters or other exogenous shocks that may affect agricultural commodity market.