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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 張靜貞(Ching-Cheng Chang) | |
dc.contributor.author | Chien-Yu Chou | en |
dc.contributor.author | 周建宇 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T00:44:17Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2015-09-17 | |
dc.date.issued | 2015 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2015-08-07 | |
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/17830 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 給不穩定,未來世界糧食生產和食物供給將會面臨巨大威脅,面對糧食不足的問題,近年來降低糧食損失與安全已是各地區達成糧食安全所推動的重要政策,然而現有文獻多集中在如何定義與評估糧食損失與浪費,更多的文獻集中探討如何透過技術與管理之整合,甚少研究實際分析降低損失與浪費所造成的經濟影響。
本研究根據FAO在2011年對全球各地區以及各種商品在各價值鏈階段所提供的糧食損耗比率,首先找出亞太地區各國各種糧食商品的損失與浪費比率,並運用全球貿易分析(Global Trade Analysis Project,簡稱GTAP)模型,分別對降低亞太地區各國糧食損失10%、降低亞太地區各國糧食浪費50%以及同時降低糧食10%與浪費50%做出經濟影響評估。 實證結果顯示,亞太地區各國在降低糧食損失後,對亞太地區各國GDP、福利以及家計淨所得有正面的影響,各糧食商品部門的市場價格下跌、產出與私部門家計端需求皆有上升的趨勢,亞太地區各國在出口至區域內以及世界其他地區的糧食商品也有增加。在降低糧食浪費的影響評估中,實證結果發現亞太地區各國在降低糧食浪費後,亞太地區各國的家計淨所得上升,雖然降低浪費會需求減少,導致價格與生產下降,但是減少浪費同時也會使糧食商品的國際市場價格下降並增加了亞太地區至世界其他各地區的糧食商品出口,最後在同時降低損失與浪費的情境中,研究結果顯示,亞太地區各國在降低糧食損失與浪費後,對亞太地區家計淨所得同樣有上升的影響,並且各商品的糧食市場價格更進一步下降,而亞太地區的出口至世界其他地區的貿易也有增加。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Current world population is expected to increase to 9.3 billion by 2050. Combined with income growth and urbanization in developing countries, the resulting changes in food consumption patterns will further intensify global food security concerns. Food supplies will need to increase by 70% in order to fulfill food demand in 2050. To wit, increasing food productivity is essential for ensuring global food security but increasing cycles of adverse weather conditions associated with climate change will bring limitations on land and water resources which will severely challenge on future food production capabilities. Due to these constraints, it may not be sufficient to simply increase food production. To sustainably achieve the goals of food security in the most efficient way, reducing food losses and waste is a promising method to improve future global food security. However, there has been little analysis or research on the potential impacts of food loss and waste and the impacts of reducing them.
This study utilizes FAO estimates of loss and waste to analyze the economic impact of reducing food loss and waste in the APEC region. By using the GTAP model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) we examine three different scenarios. The first scenario determines the systemic impacts of reductions in producer losses reaching 10% for all APEC countries and commodities covered by FAO data. The second examines the outcomes of reductions in consumer waste by 50%. The last scenario examines the impact of simultaneous reductions in producer losses and consumer waste. The empirical results from the first scenario demonstrate that reducing food loss at the producer level across the supply chain has a positive impact on GDP, welfare, and household income in the APEC region. Additionally, market prices in each food commodity sector decline, output and private sector demand both increase, and food commodity exports from APEC increase. The second scenario suggests that reducing consumer-stage food waste by 50% in APEC leads to increasing household income. Reducing waste lowers actual demand thereby causing falling prices and decreased production but also makes the international market prices of food commodities decline and increases food commodity exports from the APEC region to rest of the world. Finally, the results of the third scenario also indicate that reducing production losses and consumer waste increases household net income for the APEC region and decreases the market price of each commodity to a higher degree than based on consumer waste reduction alone; additionally, APEC region food commodity export trade was simultaneously increased. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T00:44:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-104-R02627019-1.pdf: 2762880 bytes, checksum: b822e45f5add57059665df629787698d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II 目 錄 IV 圖 目 錄 VI 表 目 錄 VII 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究流程與章節安排 4 第二章 文獻回顧 6 第一節 全球糧食損失與浪費之概況 6 第二節 糧食損失與浪費之估算 7 第三節 降低糧食損失和浪費的影響 11 第四節 降低糧食損失和浪費的經濟量化分析 14 第五節 本章小結 20 第三章 理論架構與模型介紹 21 第一節 理論架構 21 第二節 可計算一般均衡模型歷史沿革與簡介 24 第三節 GTAP 模型的架構 25 第四節 本章小結 35 第四章 資料處理與情境設計 36 第一節 地區加總介紹 36 第二節 部門加總介紹 38 第三節 生產要素 41 第四節 FAO糧食損失與浪費之數據應用 42 第五節 情境設計 52 第六節 本章小結 54 第五章 實證結果分析 55 第一節 情境一:降低亞太地區糧食損失10%模擬情境分析 55 第二節 情境二:降低亞太地區糧食浪費50%模擬情境分析 64 第三節 情境三:降低亞太地區糧食損失10%與浪費50%模擬情境分析 73 第六章 結論與建議 82 第一節 本文結論 82 第二節 未來研究方向 84 參考文獻 85 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 亞太地區降低糧食損失與浪費的經濟影響之評估 | zh_TW |
dc.title | The Economic Assessment on Impacts of Reducing Food Loss and Waste for APEC Region | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 103-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 徐世勳(Shih-Hsun Hsu),林幸君(Hsing-Chun Lin) | |
dc.subject.keyword | 糧食損失,糧食浪費,收穫後損失,可計算一般均衡,全球貿易分析, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Food losses,Food waste,Post-harvest losses,Computable General Equilibrium,Global Trade Analysis Project, | en |
dc.relation.page | 87 | |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2015-08-07 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 農業經濟學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 農業經濟學系 |
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