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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
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dc.contributor.advisor | 黃志典(Jyh-Dean Hwang) | |
dc.contributor.author | I-chien Lee | en |
dc.contributor.author | 李宜倩 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-07T23:59:37Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2013-08-25 | |
dc.date.issued | 2013 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2013-08-16 | |
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/17175 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 本文研究發行國的經濟基本條件對其貨幣占世界儲備份額的影響,並對未來國際儲備貨幣份額進行前景模擬。本研究的主要貢獻為:(1)選取1981年至2010年為觀察期間,推導近三十年國際貨幣使用慣性之影響大小;(2) 考量中國經濟成長與社經發展程度不對稱的特殊性,納入一國社經發展程度為解釋變數,以對人民幣未來在國際上的發展有更正確與符合常理的推斷。
本文研究結果顯示,最近三十年來國際貨幣使用之慣性為影響儲備份額大小最重要的因素;前人研究因觀察期間涵蓋貨幣秩序動盪的1970年代,因此其推導出的國際貨幣慣性,並未具備如本研究自1980年代至今三十年間一般大的影響力。另外,過去的研究因觀察對象皆為已開發國家,並未針對一國的社經發展程度進行分析;本研究考慮到中國社經發展程度仍落後先進國家的特性,依據中國目前社經發展程度與對未來成長樂觀的預期,推估出社經發展程度對人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣的進程具有約五年的影響。 中國欲推動人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣,除了需要加強自身條件,包括完善國內金融市場制度的建設、提升金融市場的發展水準,推動人民幣資本項目自由兌換、提升人民幣的國際流動性;同時,還應積極參與國際貨幣體系規則的制定、持續推動國際金融組織治理機制的改革,打破現有國際貨幣使用慣性,提升人民幣的國際地位。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | This paper estimates the determinants of the shares of major currencies in the international reserve holdings of the world’s central banks. Projections are made through simulation. This paper contributes to the concurrent studies in two aspects. Firstly, it estimates the extent of network externalities of the latest three decades. Secondly, it includes socio-economic development to better understand the prospect of Renminbi as an international reserve currency.
We find that in the past thirty years, there is a strong inertial bias in favor of using whatever currency that has been internationally used already. Previous studies didn’t indicate the extent of inertia as great as ours in that their sample periods include the 1970s when international monetary system was shaky and volatile. Also, while previous studies focused on the characteristics of developed countries, this paper tries to capture the asymmetry between economic growth and socio-economic development of China. The progress of Renminbi as an international reserve currency will be delayed for 5 years when the influence of socio-economic development is considered. The prospect of Renminbi as an international reserve currency is contingent on China having a more liberalized capital account and an efficient financial system. Meanwhile, China should try to break the inertia by actively taking part in the construction of a more equitable global monetary system and expanding the role for Renminbi in promoting a well-functioning multi-currency system. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-07T23:59:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-102-R01724097-1.pdf: 1084362 bytes, checksum: 3eb0a49d124013dbc6d7e0daabc0a42d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 致 謝 I
摘 要 II Abstract III 目 錄 IV 圖目錄 VI 表目錄 VII 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻回顧 3 第一節 國際貨幣及其與儲備貨幣的關連 3 第二節 國際儲備貨幣的發展歷史 5 第三節 影響一國貨幣成為國際儲備貨幣的關鍵因素 9 第四節 相關實證研究 12 第三章 研究方法 16 第一節 實證模型與變數說明 16 第二節 變數分析 20 第四章 研究分析與結果 25 第一節 實證結果 25 第二節 敏感性分析 28 第三節 情境模擬 30 第五章 結論與建議 45 參考文獻 47 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣之前景分析 | zh_TW |
dc.title | An Empirical Study of the Prospect of Renminbi as an International Reserve Currency | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 101-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 廖咸興(Hsien-Hsing Liao),胡星陽(Shing-Yang Hu) | |
dc.subject.keyword | 國際儲備貨幣,人民幣,模擬,國際貨幣使用慣性,社經發展程度, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | International reserve,Renminbi,Simulation,Network externalities,Socio-economic development, | en |
dc.relation.page | 51 | |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2013-08-16 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 管理學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 國際企業學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 國際企業學系 |
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