安倍經濟學的探討

Abstract

本文對於安倍晉三提出用以改變日本經濟的安倍經濟學，針對其提出之政策及實施的近況進行分析，同時分析美國發生次貸危機與日本泡沫經濟之相異處，盼能從中推測安倍經濟學實施的結果。 第一章針對研究背景及動機作一說明，第二章分別說明日本泡沫經濟與美國次貸危機發生的背景及環境因素，第三章則針對美國和日本實施之寬鬆貨幣政策內容說明，美國聯準會一共推出三次寬鬆貨幣政策(QE)，並配合後續扭轉政策(OT)等經濟政策，改變美國原本將面對經濟景氣衰退可能情況。日本原為世界上第一個採行寬鬆政策國家，在小泉政府時代曾推行類似的寬鬆貨幣政策，唯後續引發存款大逃亡，導致政策實施中斷，現安倍推行安倍經濟學，提出安倍三箭的經濟政策，第一箭採取寬鬆貨幣政策，第二箭推行擴張性財政政策，第三箭吸引民間投資的成長戰略方針。文中比較美國及日本發生危機之相似點及經濟基本面的相異處，評估寬鬆貨幣政策在施行上是否會因此而有不同的效果。 第四章說明美國發生次貸危機時，許多貨幣理論假設受到挑戰，Hyman Minsky提出之金融不穩定臆說卻能點出其發生的原因，而日本泡沫經濟採行貨幣寬鬆政策後，在各項短期經濟指標上產生極大變動，短期內看似景氣穩定擺脫通縮，但寬鬆貨幣政策後續引發的效應及日本國內其他因素導致可能的隱憂。 第五章綜合第一章到第四章內容，將各項可能性作一彙總，並提出後續應持續觀察及注意的方向，用以判斷安倍經濟學最後可能的結果及影響。

Based on the 'Abenomics' from Shinzo Abe－the 57th and current Prime Minister of Japan－this thesis analyze his economic policy, implementation status and the difference between the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the Japanese asset price bubble. Chapter One explain the research background and motivation. Chapter Two illustrate the background and causes for the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the Japanese asset price bubble. Chapter Three focuses on the accommodative monetary policy in the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. Federal Reserve had avoided the situation of economic recession by implemented QE1, QE2, and QE3, and coordinated with the policy of Operation Twist. Japan is the first country to implement accommodative monetary policy but failed by former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Abenomics is based upon 'three arrows' of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms. This chapter compares the similarity situation in timing and the difference of economic fundament in the U.S. and Japan, evaluating the effects of accommodative monetary policy in both countries. During the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, many monetary theoretical assumptions are challenged. Chapter Four shows that Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis was able to point out the reasons for its occurrence. After adopting monetary easing policy for Japanese asset price bubble, it caused great changes of the economic indicators in the short term to stabilize the economy out of deflation. However, the after effects of policy also triggered other factors that may lead to problems. The last Chapter concludes the content of previous chapters, takes summary for every kind of possibilities. It provides the direction for which should continue to observe and pay attention in near future, to be used for determining the final outcome and possible impact of Abenomics.