實質選擇權於網路建設投資決策之應用： 以WiMAX營運業者為例

Abstract

WiMAX是近年來全世界很熱門的一項無線通訊技術。網路擴建大筆資金的投入是否能在未來的營運中回收，這將考驗著公司經營者的智慧，因此事先的有效評估及分析將是必要的工作。 本文以WiMAX營運業者網路佈建的投資個案為例，探討包括遞延、擴充規模、放棄等實質選擇權，對投資價值的變化影響，從而建立一套簡易及實用的投資分析財務評估模型，在研究過程中比較傳統之現金流量折現法與實質選擇權模式之適用性，並對重要參數進行敏感性分析，將過去資本預算中所忽略的管理彈性量化以得到投資案之最大價值，提供決策人員作為參考依據。 本研究的成果係將投資案的分析予以結構化，並得到各種決策彈性的專案真實價值(擴展淨現值)。實質選擇權評價法雖考慮了不確定及管理彈性，但產業技術、市場的變化及競爭者策略對投資案的影響性極為重大，決策者應掌握產業的各項動態，才不至於有過度預期。

WiMAX is one of the most booming wireless communication technology in the world, recently. All operators invest lots of capital to expand their network capacity for their earning. The return in the future will be a good question to managers. So having an efficiency evaluation and analysis is necessary. Through a case of a WiMAX operator, this study discusses the applications of real option and further identified the uncertainties embedded in network deploying investment. We compared the traditional Discounted Cash Flow Model and Real-option Pricing Model related their suitability. In addition, we adopted sensitivity analysis to analyze the characteristics of real options. We also provided a numerical example to provide feasible assessments for future reference in decision-making. By using the real option approach, the managerial flexibility can be addressed properly for maximum investment return. Our results indicate that the net present value of a project can be expanded with the existence of real options. Real option analysis can take into account the uncertainty and provide flexibility in investment assessments. In strategic investment decisions, not considering the marketing situations and reaction of competitors may result in great deviation between assessed project value and actual outcome.