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標題: | 香港民眾國際移民意願研究~2012-2016年二波調查分析 Motivations for Hong Kong International Migration:Analysis of Two Waves of Surveys(2012-2016) |
作者: | Ya-Wen Chen 陳雅文 |
指導教授: | 陳明通(Ming-Tung Chen) |
關鍵字: | 國際移民意願,香港,經濟情況評估,生活滿意度,對政體的滿意度,貪腐,民主價值, International migration desire,Hong Kong,financial situation assessment,life satisfaction,satisfaction with government performance,corruption,values of democracy, |
出版年 : | 2020 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 香港於1965至1990年間的經濟發展被世界銀行譽為「東亞奇蹟」,依據英國智庫Z/Yen於2007年起迄今每半年發布一次的全球金融中心指數(GFCI),香港多位居全球第三位、亞洲地區首位,香港身為全球前段班的金融中心、最具經濟競爭力之國際城市,且地理位置因比鄰中國而逐漸崛起成為金融科技中心,更加鞏固其國際金融中心的地位。然而於此同時,香港卻持續面臨人口不斷遷徙外流之現象。香港身為國際金融中心之一及經濟競爭力位居亞洲之首,為何香港民眾仍欲移民海外?除了經濟因素會影響國際移民意願之外,是否尚有其他因素影響香港民眾的國際移民意願?作為英國殖民地的香港雖然發展較為先進,但是緊鄰中國大陸的地緣關係,是否讓政治因素亦成為考量原因之一? 本文以臺灣大學東亞民主研究中心之「亞洲民主動態調查香港調查研究計畫」於2012年、2016年由香港研究團隊進行面對面訪問之二波問卷調查資料為基礎,分析香港民眾國際移民意願的變遷與背後的原因。透過該調查及理論回顧與文獻探討,運用「人口統計學變數」(性別、年齡、教育程度)、「經濟面向變數」(家庭收入、對整體經濟情況評估、對個人經濟情況評估、生活滿意度)、「政治面向變數」(對政體的滿意度、對政府控制腐敗能力評估、政黨認同、民主價值取向)作為自變項,並以香港民眾的國際移民意願作為依變項,嘗試討論政治、經濟、人口統計學等因素可能對香港居民國際移民意願產生的影響。研究發現: 一、2016年港人移民意願相較於2012年明顯增加,加總非常願意及願意兩項,2012年僅有30.8%,2016年提升到41.8%,足足增加了一成。 二、政治因素顯著影響香港民眾國際移民意願:二波調查發現,除了政黨認同外,其餘政體的滿意度、對政府控制腐敗能力的評估、民主價值取向等變數皆有部分類別達顯著水準。 三、國際移民意願中的經濟因素「家大於國」。 四、人口統計學變數中的年齡因素顯著影響香港民眾國際移民意願:2012年、2016年統計結果均可看出年輕人表達移民意願的比例很高,尤其是不滿30歲的族群,非常傾向選擇移民,以20至29歲為例,2012年他們移民意願高於70歲以上民眾的5.565倍,2016年更高達13.566倍,比例相當驚人,由此可發現自2012年至2016年短短5年之間,年輕人的移民意願有逐漸升高的趨勢。 Hong Kong was included in 'the East Asian Miracle” by the World Bank due to its economic development from 1965 to 1990. Since 2007 the British think tank Z/Yen has published biannual reports on the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), measuring the competitiveness of financial centres, and in which Hong Kong has regularly ranked third in the world and first in Asia. Hong Kong is one of the leading international financial hubs and the most competitive economy in the world. Neighboring with mainland China, it has gradually emerged as a financial technology center and further consolidates its position as an international financial hub. Despite this, Hong Kong continues to face the issues of an outflow and migration of people. Hong Kong is an international financial hub and Asia’s most competitive economy. Why do people in Hong Kong want to relocate overseas? Although economic factors can influence people’s international migration desire, are there any other factors that would affect Hong Kong residents’ willingness to migrate? As a former British colony Hong Kong has experienced advanced development. However, with a close geographical relationship with China could this become a political factor for migration? The research in this report is based on the data gathered by the Hong Kong Survey and Research Project, which is part of the Asian Barometer Survey, conducted by the Center for East Asia Democratic Studies of National Taiwan University (NTU) between 2012 and 2016. The data was gathered by NTU’s Hong Kong research team through face to face surveys and is used by this report to analyze the change in international migration desires and the reasons behind those desires for people in Hong Kong. Through theoretical review and literature discussion, the research used ‘demographic variables’ (gender, age, education level), ‘economic variables’ (household income, overall financial situation assessment, individual financial situation assessment and life satisfaction), and ‘political variables (satisfaction with the government performance, assessment of the government’s anti‐corruption ability, political party identification, values of democracy). These are taken as independent variables while the Hong Kong people’s international migration desire was applied as the dependent variable. This research aims to explore the impact of the demographic, economic, and political factors on Hong Kong residents’ international migration desire. The results show: 1. Hong Kong people’s migration desire increased significantly in 2016 when compared with 2012. Adding the options of ‘strong desire to migrate’ and ‘desire to migrate’, the result increased by 10% from 30.8% in 2012 to 41.8% in 2016. 2. Political factors greatly influence Hong Kong people’s international migration desire. Both surveys found that in addition to political party identification, other variables including satisfaction with the government’s performance, assessment of the government’s anti-corruption ability, and values of democracy all have considerable influence on Hong Kong people’s willingness to migrate. 3. Economic factors in the willingness of Hong Kong people to migrate demonstrates 'family over country'. 4. Age in the demographic variables has huge impact on Hong Kong people’s international migration desire. The results of the 2012 and 2016 surveys both revealed a high percentage of young people willing to migrate. In particular, people under 30 demonstrated a strong desire to migrate. For example, the 20 to 29 age group’s willingness to migrate was 5.565 times higher than that of people aged over 70 in 2012, while it was 13.566 times higher in 2016. The difference is quite stark. Within only 5 years (from 2012 to 2016) young people’s desire to emigrate has continued to increase. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/16436 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202002007 |
全文授權: | 未授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 國家發展研究所 |
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