台灣企業股份發行與現金保留之研究

Abstract

McLean (2011)研究發現，美國企業在過去38年來，來自股份發行之現金保留呈上升趨勢，從1970年代佔總資產的0.44%增加至2000年代佔總資產的4.20%，並以預防動機解釋了此趨勢。反觀台灣，來自股份發行之現金保留從1990年代佔總資產的1.8%下降至2000年代佔總資產的0.8%。 本研究參考McLean (2011)之實證方法，除預防動機外，加入交易動機與代理動機，分別檢驗台灣企業之現金保留、股份發行以及來自股份發行之現金保留與三大動機之關係，並嘗試以因果關係去檢驗三大動機能否解釋台灣企業過去二十年來自股份發行之現金保留趨勢。 實證研究發現，三大動機中，只有代理動機與來自股份發行之現金保留具有因果關係，可以解釋台灣過去二十年之趨勢；相關性方面，來自股份發行之現金保留隨預防動機增加而遞增，隨代理動機增加而遞減，相較於線性關係，用非線性關係去解釋更為理想。 研究還發現，企業現金保留與預防動機、交易動機和代理動機呈正相關且顯著，符合本研究假說。企業股份發行與預防動機、代理動機呈正相關且顯著，與交易動機呈負相關但不顯著。

McLean (2011) shows that cash savings from share issuance to asset ratio for U.S. firms almost tenfold from 1971-2008, precautionary motive can help explain this trend. In the case of Taiwan, during the 1990s, cash savings from share issuance to asset ratio is 1.8%; compare with the most recent decade, the ratio falls to 0.8%. In addition to the precautionary motive where the regression models in McLean (2011) is adopted in my study, I introduce two other motives: transaction motive and agency motive, in the aim of investigating the effects of these three motives on the cash savings, share issuance, cash savings from share issuance in the firms in Taiwan. Furthermore, I examine if the motives would contribute to the trend in the cash savings from share issuance activity over time. Empirical results reveal that there is causality between agency motive and cash savings from share issuance, and agency motive plays a significant role in explaining the trend. In addition, as the cash savings from share issuance increases progressively, the precautionary motive increases, and yet the agency motive decreases; and therefore, a non-linear relationship is suggested. Results also reveal that firm’s cash savings positively and significantly correlates to precautionary motive, transaction motive and agency motive. Firm’s share issuance positively and significantly correlates to precautionary motive and agency motive, but negatively and not significantly correlates to transaction motive.