台灣包容性成長與經濟人權之實證研究

Abstract

「經濟成長」、「經濟發展」是否對「經濟人權」、「人權發展」有其正面效益？本文研究主題包括：探討「經濟成長」對「經濟人權」與「人權發展」的影響？追求「經濟人權」對增益「包容性成長」的影響。驗證台灣經濟成長率、失業率與GINI係數三者間的互動關係，探討如何實踐「均富」政策目標。 本文首先檢視攸關人權的定義、包容性成長內涵與經濟人權發展背景和國外對幸福指數的定義，其次回顧「經濟發展」對「經濟人權」相關性的文獻。後續利用單根檢定、向量自我迴歸模型（VAR）、Granger因果關係檢定、衝擊反應分析等計量方法針對探討台灣經濟成長率、失業率與Gini係數三者之間的互動關係，用於探討「經濟成長」對「經濟人權」的影響，進而驗證台灣「包容性成長」的情況。可歸納出下以結論： 在Granger因果關係中顯示對「包容性成長」的各變數間存在：(1) 經濟成長率和失業率存在雙向因果關係。 (2) 失業率和Gini係數存在雙向因果關係。(3) 經濟成長率和Gini係數沒有明顯因果關係。在向量自我迴歸模型分析（VAR）中顯示經濟成長率不具有習慣性，經濟成長率高時將伴隨低失業率，且方向明確，經濟成長會改善貧富差距，亦即當台灣出現高經濟成長率時，人們享有經濟成長果實會增加，經濟人數將會上升。失業率不具有習慣性，高失業率（失業者的所得消失）將導致貧富差距擴大亦即失業率攀昇將讓人們喪失所得來源，導致所得分配不均，經濟人數將會下降。Gini係數正向領先經濟成長率，兩者關係密切，但方向不明確。Gini係數負向領先失業率，兩者關係密切，但方向不明確。

Does “economic growth” or “economic development” have a positive impact on “economic human rights” or “human rights development?” This paper discusses the impact of “economic growth” on “economic human rights” and “human rights development,” as well as the impact of “economic human rights” on “inclusive growth.” It analyzes the interaction among economic growth rate, unemployment rate and GINI coefficient, probing into how to achieve equitable distribution of wealth. The paper first discusses the definition of human rights, inclusive growth, the development of economic human rights and the overseas definition of “happiness.” Then it reviews the literature related to impact of economic development on economic human rights. The researcher then uses quantitative methods such as Unit Root Test, Vector Autoregressive Model(VAR), Granger Causality Test and Impulse Response Analysis to shed light on the interaction among economic growth rate, unemployment rate and Gini coefficient. It then explores the impact of economic growth on economic human rights, showing the inclusive growth in Taiwan. The results are as follows: Granger Causality Test shows that: (1) There is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth rate and unemployment rate. (2) There is a two-way causal relationship between unemployment rate and Gini Coefficient. (3) There is no significant causal relationship between economic growth rate and Gini Coefficient. VAR shows that economic growth rate does not involve habitual tendency. The increase of economic growth rate leads to lower unemployment rate, which in turn shortens the gap between the rich and the poor. Unemployment rate does not involve haibtual tendency. High unemployment rate will lead to the widening distribution of wealth. Gini Coefficient positively leads economic growth rate, the two closely related with the direction unclear. Gini Coeffieient negatively leads unemployment rate, the two closely related with the direction unclear.