信用卡欠款行為分析

Abstract

信用卡相當的常見，大多數人都擁有信用卡，但其中一些人卻存在債務問題。銀 行希望更多的人擁有信用卡以賺取利潤，但他們也不希望人們有債務而付不出卡費。 這有點矛盾。因此關鍵是，銀行應該如何知道什麼樣的人會負債? 本研究使用了台灣一家銀行的數據，分析在 2015 年五月的橫斷面資料，透過羅 吉斯迴歸模型，設定是否有欠款為 0，1 變數，進一步分析各種變數，包括性別，婚姻狀況，學歷，職業，生長地區，是如何影響信用卡欠款的。 研究顯示，那些是女性，未婚，低學歷，貧窮，年輕，缺乏投資的人會欠債。分析可能原因為，女性較容易因為衝動而購物，有婚姻的家庭會因為有未來方向而節制 開銷，相反的未婚的人則是容易因為衝動消費，低學歷者，年輕族群往往薪資水平不高，也因此較容易負債。此外，住在台北，花蓮，台東的人也容易欠款結果表明，推測原因為台北物價較高，而花蓮台東則是因為薪資水平普遍不高，導致這些地區居住 的居民較容易欠款。 本研究進一步的貢獻在於，銀行可以將更多精力在這類人身上，透過適當的加權， 產生申辦信用卡者的分數，再分別給予相對應這些分數的額度，從而限制這類族群的 消費金額，達到制約的效果，並有效的控制銀行成本。

Most of the people have credit cards, and some of them have the problem with debt. The bank wants more people to have credit card so that they can have profit, but they also don’t want people to have debt. It’s contradiction somewhat. So, the point is, how should the bank know whatkind of people will tend to have debt? It must exist some similar behavior in that kind of people. This study used the data of one bank in Taiwan and find out the people who are women, not married, low education, poor, young, lack of investment will tend to have debt. The reason may be women spend their money impulsively, people who are not married will not manage their wealth for the future since they don’t have the burden to raise their family. It’s easy to have debt since the low educated people and the young earn not much, so does the poor. Results highlight the bank can focus more on this kind of person. Via some weight on these behaviors, bank can limit these people consumption with credit card limit and decrease the cost effectively.