一帶一路倡議下的兩岸水鐵聯運貿易路線之研究

Abstract

「一帶一路」是陸方在2013年倡議並主導的跨國經濟帶，主要目的在於建置絲綢之路經濟帶及21世紀海上絲綢之路沿線的交通網絡，以緊密連繫中國大陸與各國的經濟關係。又兩岸已開放大三通，而陸方開放海運直航的水港原本就位於其鐵路網絡之內，因此兩岸水運得以接軌絲綢之路經濟帶並連通東亞、中亞與南亞的地緣經濟區。職是之故，本文從兩岸水鐵聯運接軌一帶一路跨國經濟帶所形成的網絡切入，研究一帶一路倡議下的兩岸水鐵聯運貿易路線。 因為研究對象為貿易路線，所以本文採用「貿易路線是貨物透過商業運輸走走停停所形成的物流網絡」定義，來探索一帶一路倡議下的兩岸水鐵聯運貿易路線。為此，本文將「開放臺商人貨通行的陸方鐵公路口岸、陸方的海關特殊監管區域（境內關外）、開通國際絲路班次的陸方鐵路貨運站、兩岸直航水港」等地理特徵，視為貨物在商業運輸過程中短期停滯的因素。至於「中共陸疆鄰國的經濟發達且人口稠密的地緣政治核心區與有效國家領土」等地緣政治特徵，則代表東亞、中亞與南亞各國的地緣經濟區，作為驅動貨物走走停停的商業利益集中地。最後，再將上述所有空間與非空間資料彙整至GIS軟體裡，進行網路的連通性分析，以找出貿易路線或貿易網路，並視結果提出相關建議，例如朝鮮半島局勢詭譎緊張甚至惡化時的貿易路線應變，或是臺商深耕新亞歐大陸橋絲路的貿易策略，以及泛亞鐵路在建期間昆明對越寮緬三國的三種邊境貿易動線。 在第一個研究發現上，筆者觀察這些貿易路線的水運航線，在臺灣海峽之間交錯縱橫為一個連續而且航線密集的區域。這個區域再排除有主權爭議的領海、鄰接區或經濟海域等地點，形成一個具有兩岸海運航線密集且不涉主權爭議的海域，可供日後兩岸簽定和平協議之參考。筆者命名此研究發現為「兩岸貿易和平海域」，以強調本研究的和平暨商業導向。 在第二個研究發現上，本研究提出臺商在貿易路線重要樞鈕成立一帶一路運籌中心的構想，期待這些中心能夠幫助兩岸臺商應變政治風險、媒合兩岸一帶一路商機、合作推動兩岸一致對外原產地證明。 除此之外，為促進兩岸經貿學術研究，筆者於附錄不僅說明如何以簡單低成本的EXCEL VBA實作軟體機器人蒐集並整理資料，亦聲明只要註明出處（至少包括本文題名、指導教授及作者姓名），亦可使用或修改筆者自行繪製或彙整的空間圖資與非空間資料，俾便兩岸進行更多和平暨商業用途的相關研究。

“The Belt and Road” is a cross-border economic belt initiated and led by Mainland China in 2013. Its main purpose is establishing a transportation network along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road to closely link the economic relations between Mainland China and other countries. By the two sides of Taiwan Strait agree Three Direct Links, and the water ports that the Chinese Mainland agreed with direct shipping are originally located within the railway network of Mainland China, the cross-strait water transport can be connected to the Silk Road economic belt and thus connected to the geo-economic zones of East Asia, Central Asia and South Asia. Therefore, this paper focuses on the cross-strait ocean-rail trade routes under the Belt and Road Initiative in the view of the network formed by the cross-strait ocean-rail transport and the cross-border international economic belt. Because the object is researching trade routes, this paper uses the definition of Trade route, which is “A trade route is a logistical network identified as a of pathways and stoppages used for the commercial transport of cargo”, to explore the cross-strait ocean-rail trade routes under the Belt and Road Initiative. The “stoppages” in this paper means the geographical features of Mainland China's railway crossing points or highway crossing points open to Taiwan merchants, Customs Special Supervision Areas ( within national territory but outside Customs territory ), the railway freight stations for Mainland China Railway Express, and the direct shipping water ports. And the geopolitical features about business interests are the most economically developed and densely populated areas of ​​Mainland China's land-based neighboring countries, including “ecumenes” and “effective regional territory (ERT)”. Finally, all the above spatial and non-spatial data are collected into GIS software, and connectivity of network analysis will be carried out to find the trade routes or trade networks. Then relevant suggestions will be made according to the results, such as the trade route strain when the situation on the Korean Peninsula is tense or even worse, the trade strategy of Taiwanese businessmen deepening the New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge Silk Road, or the three border trade routes from Kunming to Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar. In the 1st research findings, the author observes the shipping lines of these trade routes, staggered between the Taiwan Strait as a continuous and route-intensive area. After excluding territorial sea, contiguous zones and economic sea with sovereign disputes, a sea area with intensive cross-strait shipping lines and without sovereign disputes is formed. This sea area, named as ' the peaceful seas of cross-strait trade' to emphasize the peace and business orientation of this study, could be used as a reference for signing cross-strait peace agreements . In the 2nd research findings, the idea of ​​Taiwanese businessmen establishing the Belt and Road Operations Center in the important hub of the trade route is proposed. It is expected that these centers will help Taiwanese businessmen on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to adapt to political risks, to find the cross-strait business opportunities, and to promote the cross-strait certificate of origin unity against other countries. In addition, in order to promote cross-strait trade and academic research, this paper not only explains how to collect and organize data with EXCEL-VBA-coded robot, but also shares the source, you can also use or modify the space maps and non-spatial data that the author draws or assembles on his own, so that more research on peace and commercial use can be conducted on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.