1957 年流感對教育及健康造成的長期影響－以台灣資料為例

Abstract

本文以 1957 年亞洲流感做為負面的外生衝擊，探討胚胎時期歷經嚴重流感對教育程度與健康狀況的長期影響。母親懷孕時若歷經流感高峰期，可能會影響胚胎的發育及健康狀況，甚至會對其未來的社經地位造成長期的影響。本文利用 1980 年臺閩地區戶口及住宅普查資料研究發現，在 1957 年歷經亞洲流感高峰期的個體，成人後的教育程度較低，且失業率也較高。進一步加入胚胎期初期的變數後研究發現，若在胚胎期初期遇上 1957 年流感的胎兒，其受到的衝擊影響更大，未來在教育上的表現也會較其他人差。本研究以女性流感感染率做為衡量胚胎受流感影響嚴重程度的指標，計算出胚胎期經歷 1957 年亞洲流感的個體，成年後會高出 0.76% 失業的機率，而胚胎期初期受1957年流感襲擊的人，教育的年數會降低 0.054 年，也會減少 0.85% 完成高中學歷的機率。

This paper uses the 1957 Asian influenza pandemic as a negative exogenous shock to study its long-term impact on education and health. We suggest a hypothesis that the development and health conditions of the fetus would be affected if mothers had experience this disease during pregnancy. And this impact would accordingly pose a serious threat to the fetus' adulthood socioeconomic status. Data from the 1980 Taiwan Census indicate that cohorts in utero during the 1957 pandemic have lower educational attainment and higher unemployment rate. We find greater significant negative effects on educational performances if fetus experienced 1957 pandemic were in the first trimester of the prenatal period. Using women’s influenza infection rate as a proxy measure for exposure to prenatal infection, we may calculate that the unemployment rate would increase by 0.76% if fetus have experienced the 1957 pandemic. And influenza exposure during the first trimester of prenatal life would reduce their educational attainment by 0.054 years and high school graduation probability by 0.85%.