從市場變動與消費行為探討臺灣牛乳產業的永續評鑑指標之建立

Abstract

臺灣自2025年起全面實施紐西蘭液態乳進口零關稅之政策，國內牛乳產業即面臨自由貿易競爭與永續食品消費的雙重壓力，進入轉型關鍵期。本研究以此為背景，以乳業永續發展為核心，探討市場變動、消費行為及永續評鑑指標等三大主軸，分析臺灣牛乳產業在國際貿易衝擊與永續轉型需求交織下的韌性形成與發展路徑。本研究採質量混合方法，前期研究以科技與社會研究觀點，梳理產業革新行動者網絡，作為整體研究基礎。研究一以量化方法，結合計劃行為理論與消費動機，建構永續牛乳消費意願之結構方程模型。研究二則採紮根理論，探討產業利害關係人對永續發展之認知，萃取關鍵概念，建立永續評鑑指標與權重層次。 本研究指出，在消費市場端，態度為影響永續牛乳消費意願之關鍵要因，包含動物福利、生態影響、公平交易及溯源性；並能在主觀規範、知覺行為控制及消費動機與消費意願之間扮演中介角色。亦即，政府宣導、產品資訊閱讀、營養健康、國際品牌、新奇嚐鮮及特殊風味等因素，可透過重視食物倫理的態度而影響消費者。女性與31歲以上族群之永續牛乳消費意願較高，而男性與年輕族群較願意嘗試進口產品。在產業端方面，利害關係人普遍認為經濟可行性為永續發展之前提，並以生產成本、售乳收入、消費市場表現、水資源消耗、動物福利、認證標章、食安及教育等為核心指標。其中經濟指標共識度最高，部分環境指標會因成本、技術及責任歸屬問題較顯分歧，而部分社會指標則在低共識中顯現亮點。臺灣牛乳產業的永續發展，須在經濟生存、環境調整及社會信任之間尋求平衡。 本研究整合消費者行為模型與產業利害關係人觀點，提出臺灣牛乳產業永續發展之消費理論架構與可行評鑑工具，可作為政府與產業界推動乳業永續治理、產業調整及政策規劃之參考。

In 2025, Taiwan fully implemented a zero-tariff policy on imported liquid milk from New Zealand. Taiwan’s dairy industry has since faced the dual pressures of free-trade competition and market demand for sustainable dairy products, and then entered a critical period of transformation. The current study explored three main themes—market changes, consumer behavior, and sustainability assessment indicators—to analyze how this industry’s resilience can be increased and the path of the industry’s development amidst international trade shocks and a simultaneous need for sustainable transformation. This study employed a mixed-methods approach, initially using a technology and social research perspective to identify the network of innovators in Taiwan’s dairy industry, which served as the foundation for the overall research. In the subsequent quantitative research stage, the theory of planned behavior was combined with consumption motivation to construct a structural equation model of sustainable milk consumption intention. Additionally, grounded theory was adopted to explore industry stakeholders’ perceptions of the industry’s sustainable development, extract key concepts, and construct sustainability assessment indicators and weights. This study discovered that in the consumer market, attitude is a key factor influencing consumers’ intention to purchase sustainable milk. Attitude can play a mediating role between subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, consumption motive, and consumption intention. Therefore, factors such as government advocacy, product information reading, nutrition and health, competition with international brands, and novelty and unique flavors can influence consumers through their emphasis on food ethics. Women and individuals aged 31 years and over were discovered to have a stronger intention to consume sustainable milk, whereas men and people younger than 31 years were more willing to try imported products. On the industry side, stakeholders generally believe that economic feasibility is a prerequisite for sustainable development and identify production costs, milk sales revenue, consumer market performance, water consumption, animal welfare, certification and labeling, and food safety and education as core indicators of sustainability. The greatest consensus was achieved regarding the importance of economic indicators, and disagreement was greater among the stakeholders on some environmental indicators because of concerns relating to cost, technology, and the attribution of responsibility. Some social indicators were highlighted in the context of low consensus. In summary, the sustainable development of Taiwan’s dairy industry requires a balance between a focus on economic survival, environmental adjustment, and social trust. This study integrated consumer behavior models with industry stakeholder perspectives to propose a consumer theory framework and feasible tools for assessing the sustainable development of Taiwan’s dairy industry. These tools and the framework can serve as a reference for the government and industry in their promotion of sustainable governance, industrial restructuring, and policy planning in the dairy sector.