新青安貸款政策對台灣房市泡沫之影響

Abstract

台灣住宅市場自2020年起持續上行，房價所得比與房貸負擔率雙雙創下歷史新高。政府於2023年8月推出「新青年安心成家購屋貸款」，以提高貸款上限、延長還款年限、延長寬限期及優惠利率等多維度信用擴張條件，作為中央銀行選擇性信用管制下之首購配套。然而新青安是否改善青年購屋可負擔性，抑或進一步推升房市泡沫風險，仍缺乏系統性實證分析。 本研究以台灣六都2018年第1季至2025年第2季之季資料為基礎，採用固定效果模型、事件研究法與泡沫偏離指標，從房價所得比、房貸負擔率與房價指數年增率三個維度檢驗政策效果。 實證結果顯示，新青安政策與房價具顯著正向關聯，且政策滲透程度越高，推升效果越明顯；優惠條件所釋放的購買力主要反映於房價上漲，房價所得比與房貸負擔率不降反升，購屋可負擔性持續惡化。固定效果模型進一步揭示，新青安系統性抵銷信用管制之降溫效果，形成明確的政策對沖機制。六都房市自2021年第3季持續高於本文所設定的泡沫警戒門檻，新青安推動形成更高之第二波高點，台北市泡沫風險最為嚴峻。 本研究認為，新青安本質為「以時間換取空間」的維穩機制，首購族雖以優惠條件取得貸款，卻同時以更高的房價作為代價，政策利益可能部分轉移至房屋賣方與既有房產持有者，與改善青年居住處境之目標存在根本性背離。現行新青安利息補貼確定於2026年7月底屆期後退場，後續方案也朝著強化管理方向調整，疊加大量交屋高峰與寬限期結束壓力，房市調整風險值得持續關注。

Taiwan’s housing market has been on a sustained upward trajectory since 2020, with the price-to-income ratio and debt service ratio both reaching historic highs. In August 2023, the government launched the “Preferential Housing Loans for the Youth Program”, raising the loan limit, extending the repayment term and grace period, and offering preferential interest rates, as a supplementary measure to support first-time buyers under the Central Bank’s selective credit control framework. Whether the program has improved housing affordability for young buyers or further fueled bubble risks, however, has yet to be systematically examined. Using quarterly panel data spanning 2018Q1 to 2025Q2 across Taiwan’s six municipalities, this study employs fixed-effects models, event study, and bubble deviation indicators to assess the policy’s impact on the price-to-income ratio, debt service ratio, and year-on-year housing price growth. Empirical results show that the program has a significant positive effect on housing prices, with the effect becoming more pronounced as policy penetration deepens. The purchasing power released by preferential loan conditions ultimately translated into higher prices, causing both affordability indicators to worsen. The fixed-effects model further reveals that the program systematically offsets the cooling effect of credit controls, forming a clear policy counteraction mechanism. All six municipalities have remained in bubble territory since 2021Q3, with the program driving a second and more elevated peak. Among the six municipalities, Taipei faces the most severe bubble risk. This study finds that the Preferential Housing Loans for the Youth Program is in essence a stabilization mechanism that trades time for space. First-time buyers obtained loans under preferential terms but ultimately paid for these benefits through higher housing prices, with the policy’s real benefits accruing to sellers, fundamentally at odds with its stated goal of improving housing conditions for young people. With the interest-only payment set to expire at the end of July 2026 and subsequent programs expected to tighten eligibility, compounded by a wave of incoming property completions and approaching grace period expirations, systemic market risks warrant close attention.